UFC Fight Night Johnson vs Reis
Typically after a Pay-Per-View (PPV) event the UFC will have a smaller and less involved free card the following week. Fortunately for fans that’s not what they did for the first card after the latest PPV in Buffalo. Maybe, UFC Fight Night Johnson vs Reis is the fight ‘gods’ way of repaying fans for a disjointed & ugly UFC 210. This fight night card is full of great fights, especially for a free TV event. When the main event is a title fight, and it might be the 3rd or 4th best fight of the night, it is positive sign the card is a great one. In addition to the flyweight championship being on the line, there are potentially two more title shots that may get decided Saturday night in Kansas City. Throw in a couple of possible slug fests on the preliminary card and you have a recipe for a tremendous night of fights that will make fans forget UFC 210 was such a stinker. I’ll breakdown some of the best fights on the card and offer some fight predictions and hopefully help your bank accounts. Let’s get to the fights:
Notable Preliminary Fights:
Alexander “Drago” Volkov (11th) vs Roy “Big Country” Nelson (Heavyweight 250lbs)
Preview: The fight that closes out the preliminary bouts undercard may get overlooked but I’d urge fans not to miss it. Alexander Volkov former Bellator Heavyweight champion is looking to reverse the trend of Bellator fighters struggling vs decent UFC competition. He may have won his UFC debut but he barely got by a limited Timothy Johnson in a split decision. The UFC did him no favors by giving him the ‘tough as nails’ big bomb throwing Roy Nelson as his second opponent. Volkov will tower over Nelson by nearly seven inches, and have an eight inch reach advantage which would lead casual fans to think he can easily dispatch the smaller man. However, anyone who is familiar with Roy Nelson’s career, knows he’s the country version of Mark Hunt. His body type doesn’t look like that of a premiere mixed martial artist but ask anyone whose fought him and they’ll let you know Nelson punches like a mule & never gets hurt. Volkov will have to utilize his jab and distance to keep Nelson away from him so that he does not get hit with a huge Nelson overhand right. This is a difficult task because Nelson is sneaky fast for his size. Many of his opponents see his belly and assume that he can’t cover ground quickly; only to wake up on the mat with the ref holding their head. I expect Volkov to not underestimate Nelson and deliberately move to keep the fight in the center of the octagon so he has multiple escape routes when dodging punches. Nelson’s game plan is relatively simple against the larger man, close the distance and turn it into a slugfest. He knows if he pass Volkov’s jab and get into his chest it becomes a world Nelson is best suited for. Nelson is an extremely underrated grappler which he can use to position Volkov for a massive knockout punch if he gets in close to him. I do not see this fight going the distance.
Odds: Nelson (+130) vs Volkov (-150)
Prediction: I’m not sure Volkov can hurt Nelson enough to keep him off of him, and if he can’t keep him off of him he’s in some serious trouble. I just cannot trust the Bellator crossovers against legit UFC talent, and Nelson while not being ranked is a legit UFC talent. I think Nelson will utilize his sneaky speed and grappling early in the 1st the catch Volkov off guard, force him to exchange and put him to sleep early after a nice flurry of strikes.
(Nelson +130 via Knockout)
Notable Main Card Fights:
Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (3rd) vs Robert “The Reaper” Whittaker (6th) (Middleweight 185lbs)
Preview: Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza is one of the ‘baddest’ men in the UFC but you would not know it due to his quiet workman like persona. He doesn’t brag, boast, or talk he just beats his opponents up. He enters his fight against Robert Whittaker looking for a title shot as he just resigned to a new deal with the UFC. Robert Whittaker is not looking to help Jacare with his contract negotiations or title hopes, as he has legitimate title hopes of his own. He comes into this fight against Jacare, riding a six fight win streak and is one top 3 victory away from legitimizing his claims that he deserves the next title shot at 185lbs after Yoel Romero gets his. Whittaker has a slight reach advantage despite being slightly smaller than Souza. Jacare is an anaconda snake on the ground when it comes to submissions, but that is where this fight could get decided because Whittaker has world-class takedown defense. He’s stuffed 94% of all takedowns against him during his UFC career. Jacare is by far the most skilled jiu-jitsu practitioner he will have faced to date so fans will get to see how real his takedown defense is. Jacare can get hit, so he will look to get this fight to the ground fast and not risk eating Whittaker’s un-orthodox strikes. I think this fight could look very different throughout the fight depending upon where it goes. If the fight stays standing-up, Whittaker will look in control but as soon as it hits the mat Souza will enter his safe haven. I could see several instances where both men get in some trouble throughout the fight.
Odds: Whittaker (+170) vs Souza (-200)
Prediction: The lines have dropped despite Souza opening as a near 3-1 favorite; which means people have found value in Whittaker. I think initially when this fight got made people saw it as a massive mismatch but after closer examination this is a really close fight. My gut says Jacare finds a way to submit Whittaker late in the 3rd after a back and forth fight. The one X factor is age, as Souza is nearing 40 years old and Whittaker is just entering his prime at 26 years old. Father time remains undefeated, but I don’t think he catches up with Jacare just yet.
(Souza +125 via Submission)
Rose “Thug” Namajunas (4th) vs Michelle “The Karate Hottie” Waterson (6th) (Women’s Straw weight 115lbs)
Preview: In what could turn out as a fight of the night contender Rose Namajunas will take on Michelle Waters for a chance at next in line for a title shot. Both women are two of the bigger draws in the still relatively new women’s straw weight division. They also both soundly beat UFC’s straw weight hype train Paige Van Zant. Namajunas will hold a noticeable size and reach advantage vs Waterson who before joining the UFC fought at the 105lbs atom weight divisions in other promotions. However, what Waterson gives up in size and reach she more than makes up for it in her experience vs top-tier competition when compared to Namajunas’s relatively thin resume. Waterson is a MMA vet whose won championships in other promotions and rattled off 4 consecutive submission victories since joining the UFC. Namajunas has talent but is still raw, as she has not yet hit her fighting prime. Namanjunas’s inexperience has been on display in her losses against Carla Esperanza and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. She has a propensity to get tricked into throwing wild shots which lead her to get taken down or countered by skilled opponents. Waterson is that type of skilled opponent who will look to exploit Namanjunas’s aggression. Namajunas has excellent jiu-jitsu which typically helps her if she finds herself in trouble and the fight heads to the mat. Unfortunately, Waterson may have better jiu-jitsu both offensively & defensively. This will pose an interesting challenge for how Namajunas approaches a fighter with more experienced and refined skill-set than her own. I anticipate we’ll see Namajunas attempt to use her size & strength advantage to hopefully bully Waters around the cage and wearing Waterson down.
Odds: Waterson (+110) vs Namajunas (-122)
Prediction: This fight could go many directions for both women, which is why it makes it so interesting. Namanjunas is the slight betting favorite which I find really hard to believe because I just have not seen her perform against the caliber fighter of Waterson’s pedigree so far. It doesn’t mean she can’t beat Waterson but I typically do not like picking favorites with thin resumes and Namajunas’s resume is very thin. Her best win is likely against Tecia Torres who is just a slightly above average fighter. I really like Waterson here, simply because I think she can win the fight in so many ways. Namajunas has been submitted before against Carla Esperanza and I think Waterson’s speed is really going to give her problems early in the fight. I think we see a masterful display by Waterson who appears she is in the best form of her career, and she teaches a young raw talent how much experience matters in the fight game. (Waterson +110 via Unanimous Decision)
Main Event Flyweight Championship:
Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson (Champion) vs Wilson Reis (3rd) (Flyweight 125lbs)
Preview: The main event is kind of anti-climactic compared to the other really interesting fights on the card. It’s neither man’s fault, Demtrious Johnson has cleared out his division with 10 consecutive title defenses effectively erasing any interesting opponents at 125lbs. Wilson Reis is on a 3 fight win streak but he’s only getting the title shot because there’s essentially no one left in the top 10 that Johnson has not already beaten. Both men are relatively similar in size but that’s where the similarities end. Reis is well-rounded, but Mighty Mouse is better at everything he’s good at. Reis is good fighter, Johnson is the greatest of all-time in his division. Barring a miracle home run shot from Reis in the early rounds, I think Johnson finds his rhythm and just methodically busts up the challenger for 5 painful rounds.
Odds: Johnson (-800) vs Reis (+600)
Prediction: No one is beating Mighty Mouse at 125lbs, no one. I hope this is the last time we see Demetrious Johnson at this weight class because he’s accomplished everything he could do at straw weight. I think Reis may have a moment or two but the inevitable will set in and the Champion will keep his belt via a wide unanimous decision. Hopefully, Johnson finally makes good on his flirtation with 135lbs and we get a super fight with the 135lbs champ Cody Garbrandt or a rematch against Dominick Cruz as he tries to avenge the last loss of his career over 6 years ago.
(Johnson via Decision +200) & Bonus Play (Over 3.5 rounds -200)
Prediction Record since 2016 to Date (38-36-0) (-$393.50)
-Record & predictions based on Win vs Loss predictions only. Unless specified otherwise I use increments of $100 (for + odds predictions)& $110 (for – odds bets) as hypothetical wagers for each prediction.
-Predictions & Records are for entertainment value only
