After a few weeks without a UFC card, the promotion returns with a huge Pay-Per-View rematch to decide the UFC Light heavyweight championship with UFC 210 Cormier vs Johnson 2. The card was nearly derailed by weigh-in shenanigans but the New York State Athletic Commission (NYSAC) and the UFC were able to ‘bend’ the rules to keep it together. While the shenanigans may cause a credibility issue for the promotion long-term, in the short-term the fans win because UFC 210 is the most loaded card of 2017 so far. Multiple division rankings are on the line, as well as two big name fighters potentially fighting to stay in title contention. The promotion is also attempting a risky proposition by placing total unknown flyweight’s on the main card in hopes of helping build a stronger women’s straw weight division. I’ll breakdown some of the best fights on the UFC 210 card and offer some fight predictions and hopefully help your bank accounts. Let’s get to the fights:
Notable Main Card Fights:
Will “Ill Will” Brooks vs Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira (9th) (Lightweight 155lbs)
Preview: Will Brooks started his UFC career exactly how he said he would, with two straight victories and then he met Charles Oliveira. Charles Oliveira stopped Will Brooks in his last fight out, which certainly derailed any talks of a title shot for Brooks in the near future. Will Brooks did get injured during the fight which could excuse some of his poor performance but it also showed him that the UFC’s stable of fighters are vastly deeper than the rival promotion Bellator where Will previously fought. A loss is not the end of the world for Brooks and it could prove beneficial long-term if he is able to learn from only his 2nd career defeat. However, the UFC did not give Will Brooks an easy bounce back opponent in giving him another “Oliveira” in Charles Oliveira. Charles Oliveira is a legit top 10 fighter in the featherweight division. He is going up in weight classes for this fight from feather to lightweight, but he is a relentless mixed martial artist who will test Will Brooks’s cardio for the entire fight. Both men are the same height, and despite going up in weight Oliveira will maintain a 2-inch reach advantage. Oliveira has an underrated submission game, having finished 62% of his fights via submission. Will Brooks will need to establish his jab and use his strikes to set up a distance he’s comfortable with early in the fight. Oliveira will continue to come forward until Brooks makes him pay or hurts him until he cannot pressure Brooks anymore. Brooks cannot afford to let Oliveira turn this into a grappling match where it could become a coin-flip style fight. He needs to use his movement and superior striking to punish Oliveira’s pressure.
Odds: Oliveira (+220) vs Brooks (-260)
Prediction: Oliveira is no slouch but I do not like that he’s moving up for weight in this fight. His constant pressure is effective at featherweight but I am not sure it can have the same effectiveness at a larger weight class. Brooks has a propensity to feast on guys who come at him, and I expect we’ll see that Brooks Saturday night. I think Brooks will hurt Oliveira early in this fight which will eventually lead to a ref stoppage in the 2nd or 3rd round. (Brooks -260 via TKO)
Chris “The All-American” Weidman (4th) vs Gegard Mousasi (5th) (Middleweight 185lbs)
Preview: This fight is the cliché definition of a “cross-roads” boat. Chris Weidman and Gegard Mousasi will enter the octagon on Saturday with career altering implications coming from a win or a loss. Both men are top 5 at middleweights, but both men enter the cage with huge pressure on their careers in desperate needs for a win. Chris Weidman is looking to avoid his third straight loss after being an undefeated champion only a year and half ago. Weidman has struggled with injury, being in top form, and just bone-headed in fight strategy putting him in a must win situation vs Mousasi if he ever hopes to get another title-shot. Gegard Mousasi has been in the news recently complaining about fighter pay as he enters the final fight of his current contract with the UFC. Typically the UFC will not allow a prime-time spot on a main event card without having that fighter signed to an extension and yet that his exactly where Mousasi finds himself heading into Saturday. A win over Chris Weidman would vault him into the top 3 at Middleweight and give him massive leverage to negotiate a better deal with the UFC or potentially get a massive offer from the rival Bellator promotion who has yet to land a prime top 3 fighter from the UFC. Unlike Weidman, Mousasi enters this fight riding a four fight win streak. He’ll give up about two inches in reach advantage to Weidman but is equal to him in all other measurables. Mousasi is an extremely well-rounded fighter who is fairly comfortable wherever the fight goes. His take down defense is relatively average which could end up being a major factor in the outcome of this fight. Chris Weidman arguably is the best wrestler not named Daniel Cormier currently in the UFC today. His last two fights he has drifted away from his base leading to two devastating knockout losses. He’s reportedly rededicated himself to his wrestling as well-looking in the best shape of his life since his first meeting with Anderson Silva; where he shocked the MMA world by capturing the Middleweight Championship. Weidman has a significant advantage if he can get an under hook or two on Mousasi. He should have no issues taking him to the mat where he is a dominant force and feels most at home. Mousasi has a slight advantage in the striking against Weidman, as well as a superior striking defense by comparison. Weidman gets relatively easily when he chooses to exchange with his opponents on his feet. The defense could come into factor if he can avoid getting taken down by Weidman forcing him to exchange. Weidman inexplicably tries ill-advised strikes or risky maneuvers in his last two fights leading him to lose those fights in spectacular fashion. I expect Mousasi to focus heavily on his movement and avoiding getting taken down early in the first round. He likely believes if he can frustrate Weidman early, it could lead to another wild attempt from Weidman which Mousasi can take advantage of and finish him. Weidman’s strategy is simple, use his jab to close the distance and set-up his takedowns. He knows if he gets Mousasi to the mat, he’s got the upper hand so I expect multiple attempts by Weidman in the first round to get this to the mat.
Odds: Weidman (-110) vs Mousasi (-110)
Prediction: This fight is an extremely tough fight to call because both men have so much on the line and it could lead to a variety of outcomes as pressure does different things to different fighters. Mousasi knows if he loses his negotiating leverage disappears. Weidman knows if he loses his days as a title-contender would be in serious trouble. I like how Wiedman has prepared for this fight, and is not worried about what he’s going to do next like Mousasi who has his pay & contract situation on his mind. Weidman is in phenomenal shape and if he can avoid making any bone-head mistakes he is a higher-caliber fighter than Mousasi whose lost to some good but not great fighters previously in his career. I expect Weidman to rag-doll Mousasi to the mat several times in this fight, and batters him from the top-mount position. I think he busts Mousasi up, and eventually gets the ref to step in. Another, underrated side note is if the fight is close or makes it to the judges I do not expect the promotion to do Mousasi any favors. This has fight of the night potential for UFC 210.
(Weidman -110 via TKO) / Bonus Play: (Under 2.5 +140)
Main Event Light heavyweight Championship:
Daniel “DC” Cormier (Champion) vs Anthony “Rumble” Johnson (#1 Contender) (Light heavyweight 205lbs)
Preview: Another incredible main event championship was nearly lost to weigh-in nonsense. Daniel Cormier originally came in over 1.2lbs overweight at Friday morning’s weigh-ins but after an awkward strip-down and 1 minute behind a curtain he reemerged to miraculously make-weight exactly. Anyone with two eyes saw members of Cormier’s team balance his hands on the towel they held to offset the weight overage allowing him to make-weight. Inexplicably the NYSAC allowed the move and stated they “did not see Cormier use the towel” and citing some obscure rule allowing him to weigh-in twice due to it being a “championship fight”. This is an extremely bad look for the New York fight commission which is already thought as a sub-par commission, as well as bad look by the UFC and Daniel Cormier. I will not complain because I want to see the fight and it saves UFC 210. However, for a sport to have credibility weigh-ins have to mean something. Daniel Cormier is a stand-up guy but after lecturing Jon Jones about being a “professional” this was some extremely unprofessional behavior from DC coming in over-weight. In the end the fans get an incredible rematch and best fight that can get made for the Light heavyweight championship that doesn’t include Jon Jones. In their first matchup, Daniel Cormier took Rumble’s best punch and eventually broke him in the 3rd round with his superior wrestling eventually submitting him. Fans saw DC impose his will on Johnson, and expose Johnson’s kryptonite; his cardio & heart. So fans wonder what has changed since their first fight nearly two years ago. The most obvious change is Daniel Cormier is older. Yes, so is Anthony Johnson but he’s still relatively in his fighting prime at 33 years old, whereas Cormier is only a 1 ½ years away from turning 40. He’s only fought twice since that fight with Johnson and has not looked impressive in either fights against Gustafsson or a shell of himself Anderson Silva. Cormier has expanded his role as a commentator for the UFC which is great for his marketability but definitely takes away from his time as a full-time fighter. Anthony Johnson in that same two years has rattled off 3 straight brutal knockout wins against any other Light heavyweight contenders who were standing between him and another title shot. Rumble will still maintain a huge size and reach advantage vs Cormier which allowed him to tag the champion with a huge right hand in their first fight. Cormier was able to withstand a monster shot from Rumble, but there is no guarantees his body and head will be able to do so a second time. I expect DC to take this fight to the mat faster than they did in their previous fight. He wants no part of Johnson on his feet, and runs a real risk of getting finished if he keeps it standing for a second longer than he has to. Both men looked like polar opposites at the weigh-ins with DC appearing gaunt & dehydrated, and Johnson appearing in top-shape coming in under the weight limit. Johnson’s cardio has been an issue for him in the past. However, if the weigh-ins are any indication he may hold an advantage over Cormier in that department due to the awful weight cut the champion went through.
Odds: Cormier (+105) vs Johnson (-110)
Prediction: Everything in my heart tells me to take the champion and winner of the first fight as a small underdog. It feels like a gift from the odds makers. However, upon closer examination this has the makings for a rough night for Daniel Cormier. He appears that the constant hosting gigs, in-studio shows, chasing of Jon Jones, and age have begun to catch up with him. Magic weight tricks aside, he came in over weight which is never a good sign for any fighter. Whether it was illness, poor planning, or just age it shows stress on your body before ever entering that cage. Rumble is not chasing Jon Jones ghost like Johnson, he does not have hosting gigs he has to worry about, he wants that Light Heavyweight championship and his fists are capable of knocking any fighter into another dimension if he hits you with them. Daniel Cormier was able to withstand a barrage in their first fight, but if he’s even slightly worse than their first fight that margin for error is enough for Johnson to finish him this time. I think Rumble clips DC early in the 1st round and possibly gets a brutal highlight reel knockout of a champion who just appears has too much on his plate to defend his belt. Rumble get his belt at UFC 210.
(Jonson via KO -110)
Prediction Record since 2016 to Date for UFC 210 (34-32-0) (-$337.50)
-Record & predictions based on Win vs Loss predictions only. Unless specified otherwise I use increments of $100 (for + odds predictions) & $110 (for – odds bets) as hypothetical wagers for each prediction.
-Predictions & Records are for entertainment value only
*Stats via www.UFC.com
