For just the second time in franchise history, the Tampa Bay Rays have extended a Qualifying Offer. Alex Cobb will now have 10 days to decide on his future.
As expected, the Rays have extended a qualifying offer worth $17.4 million to starting pitcher Alex Cobb. Today at 5pm marked the deadline for all teams to extend such offers to players entering free agency.
The $17.4 million is a $200,000 hike from the 2016 mark and is more than $2 million higher than the qualifying offers of 2014.
Is this a risky move?
Sure, there is a possibility that Cobb would accept the one-year offer to remain with the club that he has spent his entire career with. However, it would appear that he has a fairly high value on the free-agent market. If Cobb were to accept the offer, he’d easily become the highest-paid player in team history. And while it would be great to keep the core of the rotation in place, the Rays would then find themselves in a precarious situation. A situation that could hinder their ability to contend in 2018.
The Rays have to decide what they are going to do in terms of signing or replacing guys like Lucas Duda, Steve Cishek, Sergio Romo, Tommy Hunter, and Logan Morrison. Being on the hook for $17.4 million to Cobb is not ideal.
In a worst-case scenario, the team could trade the six-year veteran if he chooses to accept the offer before the November 16 deadline at 5pm. That would also not be an ideal situation.
Compensating for the loss of Cobb
Nothing against Cobb, but the Rays are without question hoping that the 30-year-old declines the offer. If Cobb were to decline, the Rays would receive draft-pick compensation during next years MLB Draft. The only other player to ever receive a qualifying offer ($13.3MM) from Tampa Bay was Melvin Upton, after the 2012 season. That compensation pick, No.29 overall from the Atlanta Braves, turned into Ryne Stanek. So for those wondering why the Rays would take the risk, there is your answer. The Rays would like to add another first-rounder in the 2018 draft.
The compensation for Cobb will be determined by the team that signs Cobb, as well as, the other free agent signings during this off-season.
Expect Cobb, on a multi-year deal, to command something in the area of $15-$18 million per season. It’s hard to imagine any team going over five years for a pitcher in his 30’s, so a few recent signings that compare well are listed here.
Mike Leake: 5-year $80MM
Wei-Yin Chen: 5-year $80MM
Ian Kennedy: 5-year $70MM
Keep an eye on the market for Lance Lynn, having received a qualifying offer from the Cardinals, as someone that could closely impact the market for Cobb. Don’t be surprised to see Lynn garner more money, however, if he fetches a lofty price tag that may bode well for the departed Rays’ right-hander.
Given that longer contracts often come with a higher level of scrutiny, some teams may opt for a three or four year deal instead. Assuming that Cobb will be able to obtain multi-year offers in the neighborhood of the one-year qualifying offer anyway, it seems unlikely that he will rejoin the Rays for the 2018 season.
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