When Nathan Eovaldi went down with a sudden elbow injury just before the start of the season, the Tampa Bay Rays, and it’s fans, were heartbroken.
Already looking to institute an unconventional four-man-five-day rotation, they then had to go with a three-man-five-day rotation. And while the baseball world mocked the Rays and its experimental approach after a 1-8 (and 3-12) start, the team now sits at a respectable 14-16 record.
Eovaldi, meanwhile, has yet to throw a pitch for the Rays.
But there is good news ahead for both he and the Rays.
Eovaldi is set to make his season debut later this month. With the recent news about Yonny Chirinos missing up to a month with his own elbow injury, one could say this is great news. For the time being, manager Kevin Cash has made it clear that he will use the right-hander as a starter out of the gate. Last night he made his first rehab appearance in Port Charlotte.
But is that what his role should be?
In his 6 year major league career, Eovaldi has split time between the Dodgers, Marlins and Yankees. Armed with a true four pitch arsenal which includes a high 90’s fastball, He’s consistently ranked among the league’s hardest throwing starters, especially from 2013-16, when his average fastball velocity hovered around 98 MPH.
But despite having a blazing heater and a lot of other weapons, Eovaldi has been just about a league average pitcher. In 739 major league innings, he’s pitched to a career 4.21 ERA, only striking out 539 batters. Though his stuff may be plus, his strikeout rate is around those of Jeremy Hellickson and Brandon McCarthy, who are not plus pitchers. On top of that, his last taste of big league action was two elbow surgeries ago.
What were we really expecting?
Currently, Rays starters are 6th in the AL in ERA, 6th in K/9, 5th in BABIP against, and 4th in FIP. Jake Faria and Blake Snell have pitched very well as of late. Chris Archer has been strong in two of his last three starts. Matt Andriese, Ryan Yarbrough and Andrew Kittredge have done well in limited starting action. Anthony Banda will be up soon. We all know about the guys on the Durham shuttle. It would be fun to watch Eovaldi take the ball every fifth day, but given the team’s depth, there isn’t really a need for him to be a starter. At least not right away.
You’re probably familiar with Brandon Morrow?
Morrow, like Eovaldi, features a high 90’s fastball and a power breaking ball. And, also like Eovaldi, had his moments (one of which included a 17K shutout against the Rays in 2010, possibly the most dominating pitching performance I have ever seen), but just couldn’t translate his talent into being a full time MLB starter, pitching to a 4.40 ERA in 93 starts for the Blue Jays from 2010-14.
But then a funny thing happened. in 2016, he pitched exclusively from the bullpen full time. The result? A 1.69 ERA for the Padres. Last year, he was the go to guy in high leverage for the Dodgers, as they used him in every game in last year’s postseason. This led to a 2 year, $21 million contract with the Cubs this offseason, where he is now the closer.
This could be Eovaldi’s path as well.
As I mentioned before, Eovaldi has yet to really turn the corner as a major league starter. Now, at 29, the Rays can either expect continued league average production, or try to extract value from him another way.
If Eovaldi pitches well, he adds depth to the bullpen, his stuff is sharper at max effort, his strikeout rate increases, etc. Imagine a tandem Eovaldi, Sergio Romo, Jose Alvarado, Jonny Venters, Chaz Roe and Alex Colome shortening games and taking pressure off the starters to eat innings. If this happens and the Rays stay in contention, this team will be a fun one to watch. While the Rays are a good bet to flirt with .500 all year, there’s always the possibility for things to go wrong, as well as right. If the Rays play themselves out of contention and he pitches well, teams are always willing to overpay for a deadline rental, and the Rays will take advantage and sell high.
Eovaldi’s comeback story, much like that of Jonny Venters, is one of improbable odds. When he takes the ball for the first time in 2018, the baseball world will be watching. Whether he stays a starter or does end up in the ‘pen remains to be seen. Either way, Eovaldi deserves this moment.
