After a pretty awful start to 2017 with weak cards, the UFC appears to have made a concerted effort to change that trend in the month of April. Fans will get a 2nd straight weekend of free fights with legit matchups up and down the card for UFC Fight Night Swanson vs Lobov. There are 10 fights between the preliminary and main cards on Fox Sports, which have 10 ranked fighters spread across those bouts. While there are no titles or title shots are on the line, there are fighters looking to get themselves into title contention or break back into the top 10 rankings. I’ll breakdown some of the best fights on the card and offer some fight predictions and hopefully help your bank accounts. Let’s get to the fights:
Notable Preliminary Fights:
Thales Leites (11th) vs Sam “Smile ‘N” Alvey (13th) (Middleweight 185lbs)
Preview: Thales Leites and Sam Alvey will close out the FS2 prelims in an interesting matchup between two top 15 fighters. Alvey comes into the contest riding a four fight win streak, while Leites has lost 3 of his last 4, albeit against tougher competition. Leites has come up short against the monsters of the division like Gegard Mousasi and Michael Bisping but he wasn’t out of his depth against them. He now faces a man in Alvey who appears to have finally put all of his skills together. Alvey’s skills are fairly well-rounded so he should feel comfortable wherever this fight goes. Leites is a ground specialist who grinds his opponents out or submits them. He will test Alvey’s good takedown defense; which he’s successfully stuffed 85% of the takedown attempts on him in his UFC career. Alvey’s biggest question heading into this fight, is whether he can put it all together vs a top 10 opponent. Leites may technically be just outside the top 10, he would certainly be Alvey’s best win in his career. I expect Leites to test Alvey’s wrestling base early in the first round to see if he cannot make this a jiu-jitsu grappling match which I think favors Leites. If he cannot get Alvey to the mat, this could become a really interesting fight as both men have underrated punching power. Alvey may prefer if the fight stays standing; but I think both men are susceptible to getting hurt or knocked out if it stays standing, as they both have relatively mediocre striking defense.
Odds: Nelson (+101) vs Leites (-121)
Prediction: Vegas thinks this is a coin-flip type fight, and I tend to agree. However, I lean Leites as I think he possesses an elite skill set on the ground, whereas Alvey is more balanced but does not have an elite skill in my opinion. Leites has shown he can beat and compete with the top talent at 185lbs, where I have not seen Alvey do that. And while it would not surprise me if either man gets their hand raised, I think Leites finds a way to hurt Alvey in the middle of the fight and overwhelms him on the ground for a late finish.
(Leites via Submission (-121))
Notable Main Card Fights:
John “The Magician” Dodson (7th) vs Eddie Wineland (10th) (Bantamweight 135lbs)
Preview: John Dodson is a supremely talented fighter who just can’t seem to find a division that suits him. He could have been the 125lbs champion if Demetrious Johnson did not exist and so he’s moved on to the 135lbs division in hopes of finding another title shot. I cannot help but think if Dodson was a few inches taller with a longer reach that he’d would have already won a belt at either 125 or 135lbs because he is so fast and explosive. His only losses in the UFC are two unanimous decision losses to arguably the greatest pound for pound champ in the sport & a controversial split decision loss to a super tough John Lineker. Dodson just provides so many challenges for his opponents due to his blinding speed & tough takedown defense. Eddie Wineland is a good gauge for Dodson in the 135lbs division to see how real his chances are of competing with the top 10. Wineland has a great mix of knockout power and MMA wrestling making a legit top 10 fighter in the Bantamweight division. However, he has struggled when he fights top end fighters and Dodson is definitely a top end fighter. Wineland will have a significant size and reach advantage against Dodson but he may struggle to grapple with Dodson due to the speed difference. I think Wineland’s corner will look to attempt to slow this fight down & lull Dodson into complacency. In order to do this he’ll need to successfully get Dodson to the mat or tie him up along the cage in trying to sap some of Dodson’s energy and speed. He still needs to be careful however due to Dodson’s speed and lower center of gravity he can hurt Wineland as he tries to close the distance or shoot for a takedown if he isn’t perfect. If Dodson can find a home for his snapping leg kick and sneak fast right hand it could prevent Wineland from implementing his gameplay to grind Dodson out.
Odds: Wineland (+370) vs Dodson (-420)
Prediction: Dodson is rightfully a prohibitive favorite. I think he can get into the top 3 of the 135lbs division depending upon his path to get there, where I do not think Wineland is better than his current top 10 ranking. No one has stopped Dodson so far in his UFC career, and I think that’s the only way Wineland can get a win against the faster and more skilled Dodson. This is a bad recipe for Wineland, needing to do something Demetrious Johnson could not accomplish. I think Dodson puts on a electifying peformance and possibly gets the knockout of the night against a really solid opponent & puts the 135lbs division on notice that there’s another big time opponent in a division filled with them.
(Dodson (-420 straight up) & +140 via KO/TKO)
Ovince Saint Preux (8th) vs Marcos “Pezao” De Lima (Light heavyweight 2055lbs)
Preview: Ovince Saint Preux has had a rough year. A year ago he was getting an unexpected title shot vs than champ Jon Jones, and while he lost that fight he earned lots of respect for how he was not out of his depth against Jones. However, in his two fights since the Jones fight he has gotten knocked out by Jimi Manuwa and lost a tough split decision vs Vollkan Oezdemir. He enters his fight against De Lima needing a win desperately or risk becoming a stepping stone in the division. OSP will hold a 5 inch reach advantage against Marcos De Lima, who is a legit striker with holes in his game. De Lima is coming off a big first round knockout of Jeremy Kimball and is hoping to score his first win over a top 10 opponent in his career. De Lima’s strategy is simple, hurt and finish OSP. Saint Preux’s striking defense is suspect at 46% as he has a tendency to stand flat-footed when he wants to exchange strikes. If De Lima can get OSP to trade shots with him it could give him the best chance of getting a victory. I expect OSP to not bother with trying to out strike De Lima, and rely on his superior wrestling ability to hurt De Lima once he’s on the mat. De Lima has one of the worst take down defenses in the Light heavyweight division which means he can’t waste the early parts of rounds when they start standing.
Odds: Saint Preux (-160) vs De Lima (+136)
Prediction: Barring a big shot or exchange early, I think De Lima will spend most of this fight on his back getting pummeled by OSP. As long as OSP utilizes his wrestling to expose De Lima’s weak takedown defense I think he cruises to an easy but much-needed victory. I think he may even get a late stoppage if he isn’t satisfied with just going to the judges.
(Saint Preux -160 via Unanimous Decision) / Bonus play (Over 1.5 rounds +220)
Prediction Record since 2016 to Date (40-39-0) (-$593.50)
-Record & predictions based on Win vs Loss predictions only. Unless specified otherwise I use increments of $100 (for + odds predictions)& $110 (for – odds bets) as hypothetical wagers for each prediction.
-Predictions & Records are for entertainment value only
