Tomorrow night in New York City Jorge Masvidal and Nate Diaz will step into a cage to determine who is the ‘Baddest Mother F**Ker’ (BMF) on the planet. The winner of their scrap will get the completely made up for marketing purposes new “BMF Belt” and crowned the ‘BMF’ in the UFC. However, cheesy marketing ploy aside, it does not mean there is not some fundamental truth to it. Ask around Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) fighter, fan, and media circles about which fighters are universally respected as the ‘toughest fighters’ of a sport full of tough men and women; and you’ll likely get a few names. You may get some debate who is the “toughest” but you won’t hear a person object to either Masvidal or Diaz being in that conversation. They fight with a mean streak once the cage closes and you better hope you have the skills to stop them or they will happily facilitate a beating for your troubles. Both men’s spirit animals within the octagon personify that of a crazed rabies infected junkyard dog. This isn’t to gloss over the fact that both men are also accomplished mixed martial artists; do not confuse Diaz or Masvidal with the wild beer-bellied Tank Abbott’s type of toughness. Masvidal is one of the most technically proficient fighters in the UFC and Diaz has tremendous dirty boxing skills to go along with his world-class cardio. Saturday night may not definitively prove who is, in fact, the ‘baddest’ man in all of MMA but it will certainly be one of the most entertaining and satisfying main events of the year.
Main Card Predictions:
Jorge Masvidal v Nate Diaz (Main Event)
Odds: Masvidal -160 v Diaz +130
Prediction: Masvidal is in the best form of his career heading into this bout and I just do not see a place Diaz will get the better of him unless Masvidal gets hurt during the bout or gets sloppy during a scramble. This fight will be an entertaining one but I think Masvidal shocks a lot of people with a late ref stoppage of Diaz. I’m expecting a bloody war. Masvidal by TKO (-160)
Kelvin Gastelum v Darren TIll
Odds: Gastelum -250 v Till +200
Prediction: The line might look jarring considering Gastelum is the definitively smaller man between the two fighters yet is more than a 2-1 favorite over Till. However, this is Till’s first fight at middleweight after getting knocked unconscious by none other than Jorge Masvidal at the lower welterweight class. It’s tough to know if the weight cut caused Till’s chin to fail him or if that now is a legitimate concern he has to worry about. I did not like that Gastelum still struggled with his weight cut so I’m going to take a flyer on Till at plus odds that the new weight suits him better and he’s able to impose his will on the smaller fighter. Till by KO/TKO +200 (Underdog Play) / Under 2.5 Rounds -110
Stephen Thompson v Vincente Luque
Odds: Thompson -120 v Luque -110
Prediction: Thompson has been a bit of an anomaly after his horrendous fights against Tyron Woodley in 2017. He’s looked older, slower, and more tentative until his last fight vs Anthony Pettis where his aggression got him knocked unconscious. Luque has looked phenomenal in 2019 winning 3 fights already and riding a 6 fight win streak overall. In a coin-flip fight I’ll take the guy who looked sharpest most recently; which is Luque. Luque by decision -110
Derrick Lewis v Blagoy Ivanov
Odds: Lewis -125 v Ivanov -105
Prediction: My initial lean was to fade Lewis coming off a bad knockout loss vs Dos Santos. However, after seeing the phenomenal shape looks to be in at the weigh-ins and some Vegas steam pushing Lewis to a slight favorite. I will take Lewis to finish a guy he might not have to worry about having enough power to keep him from walking him down. Lewis by KO/TKO -125
Kevin Lee v Gregor Gillespie
Odds: Lee +120 v Gillespie -150
Prediction: Gillespie is the undefeated and undersized fighter at 155lbs no one really wants to face and watching his tape its easy to see why; the man can flat out beat you anywhere the fight goes. He’s got enough power to make you pay, he has wrestling, and he’s got ju-jitsu. My hat goes off to Kevin Lee whose taking such a tough opponent on after a loss. Lee has only one shot and he knows it, bite down on the mouth guard and trust his striking to take care of business like it has so many times in his career. I don’t think it will this time but should be a really fun fight nonetheless. Gillespie via Submission -150
Corey Anderson v Johnny Walker
Odds: Anderson +140 v Walker -170
Prediction: I am really high on Johnny Walker’s ceiling in the UFC. I think he is physically gifted enough to one day become a champion. Anderson is a tough but older opponent who also appears to be dealing with a hand injury coming into a fight with a very dangerous opponent. I think Walker announces himself to a wide audience Saturday night in spectacular fashion. Walker by KO/TKO -170
Bonus Parlay of the Night:Masvidal -160 / Walker -170 parlay @ +158
Prediction Record since 2016 to Date (86-66-1) (+$1120.50)
Record & predictions based on Win vs Loss predictions only. Unless specified otherwise I use increments of $100 (for + odds predictions) & $110 (for – odds bets) as hypothetical wagers for each prediction. Predictions & Records are for entertainment value only
