The UFC heads to Detroit, Michigan for Holloway vs Aldo 2 with potential for an action packed card.
UFC 218 Holloway vs Aldo 2 has quietly flown under the radar after the incredible UFC 217 card only a month ago. The card may not have the bad blood of Garbrandt vs Dillashaw or the return of a living legend like UFC 217 with George St. PIerre, but it has some delicious fights. This card is the result of excellent matchmaking which should satisfy fans appetites for fireworks & meaningful MMA action. If you sense a culinary theme, it’s intentional. Instead of my normal far too long in-depth PPV card breakdowns, I am going to try something new around here; a ‘Litzen’-Burger-A-Meter. Get it? Litzenberger, Litzen-Burger-A-Meter. Its cheesy but who cares we are talking about fights & burgers! The Burger meter will look at the fight matchup (how good is it, how important, how entertaining) and associate it with its hamburger equivalent. I’ll breakdown the main card by relating it to its “burger form” and offer some fight predictions to hopefully help your bank accounts. Let’s get to the card:
(100% Imported Kobe Beef Burger): Ridiculously luxurious & best of the best
Eddie Alvarez (4th) vs Justin Gaethje (5th) (Lightweight 155lbs)
Preview: I do not care if there is no belt or number one contender slot on the line. This is the best fight on this card. You have two talented maniacs who only want to come forward and throw every conceivable weapon they have at the other until their opponent is unconscious. These aren’t just sloppy brawlers, they are offensive juggernauts, with huge hearts and no fear. If you want someone to understand why people love MMA, get them to watch this fight because it will not disappoint.
Odds: Alvarez (+165) vs Gaethje (-200)
Prediction: Gaethje gets hit a lot and I don’t know how much longer his style will last against the top fighters in the division. Fortunately for Gaethje he is fighting a diminished Eddie Alvarez in my opinion. Alvarez has made a career fighting wars against top guys but recently his chin has begun to fail him and I worry it won’t last against Gaethje who is not as quite as battle worn as Alvarez. I can honestly see either man winning but I think Gaethje is just a younger version of Alvarez whose chin is just stronger. In a slugfest, give me the guy who hasn’t been stopped yet. Don’t be Gaethje straight up, as the only way he’s winning is via KO or TKO; take the even money (Gaethje by KO/TKO +100)
(In & Out): Lives up to the Hype & always worth it
Max Holloway (Champion) vs Jose Aldo (#1 Contender) (Featherweight Title Fight 145lbs)
Preview: A rematch from their back and forth title fight in June of this year, fans and the UFC enjoyed it so much they ordered a sequel. The featherweight title is on the line, with a couple of interesting storylines: this could be Aldo’s last chance to get his belt back or it could cement Max Holloway as the new 145lbs king. Will Aldo make any significant adjustments to their first fight that saw him get knocked out? Can Holloway avoid the early damage he took in their first fight and impose his will from the opening bell? This is a great headlining fight, the only thing that keeps it from being a 5 Burger is both men don’t have the personality to bring the sizzle required to get to that level.
Odds: Holloway vs Aldo
Prediction: Aldo’s camp swears he’s going to kick more this time, but he swore that in the previous three fights and we haven’t seen it. I just don’t see him being able to do anything to finish Holloway unless he catches him with the perfect shot and is willing to try to use his incredible but forgotten jiu-jitsu. Holloway’s bigger, he’s got the belt, the confidence he can stop Aldo, and I think he takes the rematch easier this time. (Holloway by KO/TKO -125)
Alistair Overeem (#1 Contender) vs Francis Ngannou (#4) (Heavyweight 245lbs+)
Preview: This nearly made the 5 Burger Kobe beef category but Ngannou just hasn’t proven enough yet to elevate this fight to that level. This is still an incredible matchup between a striking legend and a dangerous rising prospect looking to make his mark against a legend. Sprinkle the stakes of a possible heavyweight title shot on the line for the winner. Throw in that both men actively sought the other out for this matchup and you have a recipe for a tremendous fight that is a near certainty to end in a finish.
Odds: Overeem vs Ngannou
Prediction: Ngannou is the supposed next big thing in the heavyweight division and the man certainly looks the part. He’s huge, he hits hard as a Mack truck, and he’s won 5 straight UFC fights via stoppage. He also hasn’t fought anyone in the class of Alistair Overeem. Ngannou may very well win the UFC title one day but I think he’s going to get a rude awakening from a striking legend whose not yet ready to hand over his shot at the belt to the new guy on the block. I’m not sure if this fight makes it out of the first round. Take the more technically gifted striker at +odds and thank me later.
(Alistair Overeem +210)
(Home Cooked Burger): Solid, reliable, and hits the spot
Tecia Torres (#5) vs Michelle Waterson (#6) (Women’s Straweight 115lbs)
Preview: Are either of these women good enough to beat Rose Namajunas or Joanna Jedrzejczyk? Probably not, but they both have entertaining offensive styles and are one of the handful of 115lbs women capable of finishing fights so its a solid & fun matchup, just like a homemade burger.
Odds: Torres (-265) vs Waterson (+210)
Prediction: Both these women will look to make their opponent uncomfortable in the early rounds. I expect a lot of pressure from Torres early and possibly put Waterson in some deep waters if she is able to get her to the mat. However, Torres doesn’t have a lot of knockout power which is something that tends to hurt Waterson the most. I think once Waterson realizes she can withstand the biggest shots Torres can throw at her, she’ll start to get the confidence to come forward & counter-strike. Waterson has phenomenal kicks and I can see Torres walking into one late in this fight. I think it’ll turn a very close back and forth fight into a Waterson decision. I’ll take a +odds dog in a near dead even fight. (Waterson +210)
(Waffle House Burger): It won’t kill you but high quality it is not
Henry Cejudo (#2) vs Sergio Pettis (#4) (Flyweight 125lbs)
Preview: So why is a matchup of two top 5 guys in their division the least interesting main card fight? Maybe its ‘Demetrious Johnson’ fatigue or the fact that the smallest men’s weight class has turned in some snoozer fights recently; either way I just do not care much for this matchup. Pettis is well-rounded fighter but doesn’t do anything that makes fans say “wow”. An Cejudo is a world-class wrestler with iron fists but he was effectively neutered against the champ ‘DJ’ which takes a lot of shine off of his brand. I think this fight is less interesting to me not because it ‘can’t be a good fight’, but simply because it won’t matter who wins it. No matter who wins, they won’t get a title shot until DJ retires, gets bored, or moves up in weight class. The fight feels like filler in a main card full of action. The winner becomes the de-facto bronze or silver medalist at 125lbs, which just does nothing for me.
Odds: Cejudo (-310) vs Pettis (+265)
Prediction: Cejudo may have some deficiencies in jiu-jitsu but I don’t think Pettis can take advantage of it. Cejudo should throw pets around the octagon like a rag doll on route to a wide unanimous decision or a late ref stoppage. (Cejudo -310)
(Gas Station Burger): Hello darkness my old friend
None this time
Prediction Record since 2016 to Date (64-43-1) (+$1368.50)
- Record & predictions based on Win vs Loss predictions only. Unless specified otherwise I use increments of $100 (for + odds predictions) & $110 (for – odds bets) as hypothetical wagers for each prediction.
- Predictions & Records are for entertainment value only
- Stats provided from http://UFC.COM & http://www.fightmetric.com/
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