Tevin Coleman delivered a sizzling performance against Washington that sets him up for another big day against Cleveland. Coleman scored a season high of 32.2 fantasy points in Week 9. His 156 yards from scrimmage included catching two touchdowns and averaging 6.8 yards per carry. He has four TDs (three receiving, one rushing) in his past three games.
What made Coleman’s Week 9 outing even more impressive is that it came against a Washington run defense which ranks No. 4 in the NFL and hadn’t previously yielded a receiving TD to a running back. Coleman faces a Browns defense that gives up an average of 30.5 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. The Browns have allowed RBs to rush for 12 TDs, the most in the NFL.
Bank On
Running Back
Aaron Jones, Green Bay vs. Miami. Ty Montgomery plays for Baltimore, Jamaal Williams saw a meager nine touches in Week 9 and the Packers backfield belongs to Jones. He rushed 14 times, caught two passes and totaled 86 yards from scrimmage in Week 9. Those marks all either tied or surpassed his previous bests this season. He draws an exploitable Miami run defense which ranks No. 31 and allows RBs to average 136.1 rush yards per game. Jones’ 6.0 YPC ranks No. 1.
Wide Receiver
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati vs. New Orleans. With A.J. Green out with a toe injury, Boyd steps into the No. 1 WR role and becomes the top target for Andy Dalton. Against stronger pass defenses, that could spell trouble if Boyd faces the opponent’s top cornerback. But the Saints don’t have a shutdown corner and allow an average of 311 passing yards per game, ranking No. 29. Fresh coming off a bye, and with John Ross looking good to go (groin), Boyd’s chances for a big day skyrocket.
Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona at Kansas City. Fitzgerald suffered through a brutal five game stretch in which he failed to top eight PPR points in a game. But he bounced back by scoring TDs in consecutive games and eclipsed 100 receiving yards for the first time this season in Week 8. During Weeks 8-9 he saw 20 total targets. He’s shown increased rapport with Josh Rosen, and with extra time to prepare for the Chiefs on Arizona’s bye week, Fitzgerald keeps his hot streak going. KC ranks No. 32 in passing defense, and allows opposing receivers to score an average of 37.6 FPG.
Quarterback
Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago vs. Detroit. A glance at his stats last week and it looks like Mitchy Biscuits laid an egg against Buffalo. But he didn’t need to do much in a game where his defense accounted for two TDs and the Bears ran the ball well. That won’t be the case against Detroit, and Trubisky will have to chuck it. In two of the three games prior to the Buffalo game, he threw for more than 300 yards and had at least two passing TDs. He also rushed for a combined 185 yards in the past four games.
Tight End
Jack Doyle, Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville. Doyle’s presence boosts Andrew Luck’s play and it should help Luck find holes in the stingy Jacksonville secondary, which hasn’t quite lived up to its expectations lately. Doyle functions as a safety blanket for Luck much like Julian Edelman does for Tom Brady. In the three games Doyle’s played this season, he’s seen a combined 22 targets, with four coming in the red zone.
D/ST
Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland. In their past three games, opponents have outscored the Raiders 109-34. In Week 9 Oakland totaled 281 yards on offense while scoring three points. That came against a Niners team ranked No. 22 in total defense. San Francisco’s D/ST scored 15 points while sacking Carr eight times. The Chargers have recorded 22 sacks this season, two fewer than the Niners. That will change this week.
Bench
Running Back
Kerryon Johnson, Detroit vs. Chicago. Multiple factors decrease Johnson’s odds for success in this game. A healthy Theo Riddick saw eight targets in his Week 9 return from injury, while Johnson saw five. The previous week, it was Johnson who saw eight targets. Johnson’s 12 red zone touches best his other backfield mate, LeGarrette Blount, by one. He’s competing in a three-way timeshare for targets and carries, and Blount receives more goal line work. Against a Bears defense which ranks No. 1 in fantasy points allowed per game to RBs (16.9), the chips are stacked against Johnson.
Sony Michel, New England at Tennessee. Michel draws a tough Titans defense in his return from a knee injury. Tennessee hasn’t allowed a rushing TD in its past two games, which means Melvin Gordon and Ezekiel Elliot failed to score. The only running back to rush for a TD against the Titans this season was Alex Collins, who had two in Week 6. James White dominates in catching passes out of the backfield, while Michel has four receptions this season. The Titans rank No. 4 in fantasy points allowed to RBs (17.7).
Wide Receiver
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville. Hilton draws one of the toughest cornerback matchups of the week against Jalen Ramsey, who he’ll see plenty of. Hilton, a split end, plays 18-percent of his snaps out of the slot so he’ll avoid shadow coverage. But the Jaguars secondary as a whole makes things tough on receivers, allowing an average of 28.7 FPG. Opposing receivers have scored one TD against Ramsey, who’s only been burned once, and that was by O’Dell Beckham Jr. Ramsey limits opponents to 9.3 FPG.
Jordy Nelson, Oakland vs. Los Angeles Chargers. So much for Amari Cooper’s departure boosting Nelson’s stock. In the past two games sans Cooper he’s caught 3-of-7 targets for 30 yards. The Raiders offense ranks No. 21 in total offense, and failed to score more than 10 points in three of its past four games. Derek Carr’s 47.4 total QBR ranks No. 25.
QB
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland vs. Atlanta. Don’t trust Mayfield even in this plus matchup. He’s failed to find success against some of the worst pass defenses in the league, and that won’t change this week. Since taking over the starting job in Week 4, he’s never thrown more than two TDs and got picked in all but one game. He’s thrown for more than 300 yards once, and his TD/INT ratio is 10-7. Mayfield hit the 20 FPG mark once.
Tight End
Eric Ebron, Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville. With Jack Doyle back and enjoying a healthy target share, Ebron’s snap share plummeted to 21.1-percent in Week 8. Andrew Luck targeted him three times, but managed to salvage his day with a TD. That will be a tall order against the Jaguars. Opposing TEs have scored three TDs against them, and Jacksonville holds the position to an average of 9.9 FPG.
D/ST
Washington at Tampa Bay. The Redskins defense showed its cracks against Atlanta, as Tevin Coleman averaged 6.8 YPC and Matt Ryan threw for 350 yards and four TDs. Complicating matters for Washington, its offensive line just lost its two starting guards and both its starting tackles are also injured. That could force the defense to spend too much time on the field, wearing it down. The Bucs pass-happy offense ranks No. 3 in team pass plays (44.6 per game) and averages 28.6 points per game.
