One of the most popular sayings in the fantasy industry is: You can’t win your league in the first round, but you can lose it.
We’re heading into the biggest draft weekend of the fantasy baseball season. Personally, in the first few rounds of the draft I try and avoid as much risk as possible. Whether that’s avoiding a player that’s a little dinged up in Spring Training or a player that’s coming off of an outlier season. I trust my process enough that I will find the late rounds gems that allow me to be more conservative in the early rounds.
I’m basing these rankings based on FantasyPros ECR (expert consensus rankings). They compile all of the rankings throughout the major sites to come up with a consensus. These rankings do fluctuate as these experts change their rankings daily.
Everyone with an ECR of 7-11
I’m kind of cheating here and here’s why. The industry is just way too low on Jose Altuve who has an ECR of 14. I’m taking Altuve if I have the seventh pick or later in the first rounds of all my mocks, and maybe as high as fifth depending on the format. I’m fully buying him bouncing back to his MVP numbers. That lineup and his skill set is just too good to pass on for the likes of a Christian Yelich, Trea Turner, Ronald Acuna or Chris Sale. I’m not necessarily passing on those guys because I think they’re going to bust, but if I’m picking seventh or later and Altuve is there I’m taking him every time and I’m just not getting those other guys.
Francisco Lindor (ECR 13)
The calf injury that Francisco Lindor sustained has me very nervous. I want to be optimistic about Lindor and his recovery process, but all I can think of is how calf injuries have hampered Josh Donaldson. While I understand every injury is different, it’s difficult for me to just ignore what happened to Donaldson and assume Lindor will be back at 100% after the nine weeks of expected recovery time is up.
This is not to say I think Lindor will only play 50 games and hit .250, but at 13th overall there’s just a few players I’d rather have that don’t carry the same risk as Lindor. Again, I’m very conservative early in my drafts.
Trevor Story (ECR 18)
Ahh, Trevor Story might be the player in all of fantasy that I’m just beyond torn on. I think he’s an absolute star, but I also think that last year is his ceiling, but I think that he can still be a star without matching those numbers. His skillset — in that park — is just so rare. I’m so confused with him. I don’t think he’s a sell in dynasty like I initially thought, but I think his redraft ECR of 18 is a tad too high. Again, I don’t think he’s going to fall flat on his face and hit .239 like he did in 2017, but I also don’t think his value at 18th overall is worth what the downside can be. Plus, with shortstop being as deep as it’s ever been, the value that you can find later in the draft just so happens to be something I catch myself doing more often than not.
Khris Davis (ECR 38)
Khris Davis, who is DH only in the majority of leagues, is arguably the most consistent fantasy hitter of all time. Davis has hit .247 in four straight seasons. Think about that. Davis leads all of baseball with 133 combined home runs over the past three seasons. The range that Davis is being taken in is typically the point in the draft that I’m trying to draft my stolen bases or my ace. While Davis remains a very good fantasy asset, home runs is a fairly easy category to fill and are available throughout the entirety of the draft, for the most part. Plus, I’m one of the “position matters” guys and to fill my DH/UTIL spot that early in the draft is just something I do not like to do.
My philosophy does change, however, if Davis is eligible in the OF. I’d imagine his ADP varies pending on his availability.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (ECR 60)
One of the most hyped up prospects that I can ever remember. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has one of the highest ceilings in anyone in all of baseball. Vlad has an ECR of 60, but that’s a little skewed since a site has him ranked 350. No, I don’t know what site did that or why FantasyPros even uses it.
Vlad was expected to start the season in AAA and is now dealing with an oblique strain which might delay his arrival even more than we initially expected. Because of this, his ADP of 46 overall is just far too rich for my blood. While the players going in that range don’t necessarily have the upside that Vlad possesses, like Lindor, the depth at third base allows you to wait and draft someone with less risk in the 40-50 range of the draft.
Honorable Mentions
Edwin Diaz (ECR 57)
Nelson Cruz (ECR 60)
Marcell Ozuna (ECR 64)
Up next is the early round guys I’m avoiding in redraft leagues.
If you have any fantasy baseball questions tweet me @EvansEric10.
