Jameis Winston might throw his final pass for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season. He should have already thrown his final pass for your fantasy football squad. After tanking against the Ravens with a season-low 4.3 fantasy points, he faces another tough test against the Cowboys in Jerry Land.
Winston’s road woes run deep. He’s thrown eight touchdowns to 10 interceptions on the road this season, and his away QB rating (80.9) is nine points lower than his home rating (89.1). He’s had one good road game from a fantasy perspective (30 points vs. Atlanta in Week 6).
The Bucs have scored 26 total points over the past two games, and face a Dallas team that has lost one home game this season and ranks No. 5 in total defense. The Cowboys also do a good job of limiting quarterback production: they rank No. 8 in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks (15.8). Even if Winston can reach that mark, it’s not going to win you a fantasy title.
Bank On
Running Back
Jordan Howard, Chicago at San Francisco. Howard failed to deliver the fantasy goods at times this season, disappearing in the Bears overhauled offense. But game script favors him of late: Howard’s totaled at least 16 carries and 75 rushing yards in each of his past three games. He also found the end zone for the first time since Week 9 against Green Bay and recorded his second 100-yard rushing game this season in Week 14. Howard has increased his fantasy output in each of the past three games. In a good spot against the 49ers middle-of-the-pack rush defense, Howard should again approach the 20-carry mark. Running backs have rushed for 11 TDs against San Francisco, which gives up an average of 26.4 fantasy points per game to them. The Bears are favored against the Niners, setting the table for another big workload for Howard.
Gus Edwards, Baltimore at Los Angeles Chargers. Gus the Bus remained in the driver’s seat of Baltimore’s backfield in Week 15. He out-touched Kenneth Dixon 19-12 on his way to 104 rush yards and a TD. Since he earned lead back status in Week 11, Edwards is averaging 5.1 YPC and has eclipsed 100 rush yards three times. His lack of involvement in the passing game caps his ceiling, but against the Chargers, who allow the ninth-most FPG to opposing backs (26.7), he’ll find room to run.
Wide Receiver
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis vs. New York Giants. Hilton made a strong showing against the Cowboys seventh-ranked pass defense, catching 5-of-8 targets for 85 yards. His 13.5 fantasy points were his worst mark since Week 10, a testament to his recent productivity. Don’t shy away from the matchup against the Giants, who yield the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. Hilton faces a primary cornerback matchup against Janoris Jenkins, whose +1.8 coverage rating ranks No. 61. Jenkins’ recent solid play is misleading: he hasn’t faced an elite receiver like Hilton since Julio Jones torched him for 31.5 fantasy points in Week 7.
Doug Baldwin, Seattle vs. Kansas City. Baldwin has battled injuries all season but showed flashes of his old self in recent weeks. He’s scored three TDs in his past three games and saw four red zone targets during that span. He hasn’t been racking up receiving yards, but offers title-winning upside against the Chiefs league-worst pass defense. While the Seahawks attempt the fewest passes per game in the NFL (29.9), they’ll need to throw the ball to keep up with KC. The Chiefs average the most points per game (35.6) and are favored in a contest with an over-under of 53.5 points.
Quarterback
Dak Prescott, Dallas vs. Tampa Bay. In the friendly confines of AT&T Stadium, Prescott sports a 109.6 QB rating. He’s led Dallas to a 5-1 home record this season while averaging 20.5 FPG. Just in time to win gamers a fantasy title, he draws a juicy home matchup against the Bucs, who rank No. 28 in total defense. Tampa Bay allows an average of 259 passing yards per game, and the fourth-most FPG (20.6) to opposing quarterbacks. Prescott’s safe floor figures to be 20 fantasy points, and his immense ceiling makes him a must-start for championship week.
Tight End
David Njoku, Cleveland vs. Cincinnati. A major disappointment to fantasy gamers over the second half of the season, Njoku draws a get-right game against the Bengals. When these teams met in Week 12, Njoku caught all five of his targets for 63 yards and a TD. That’s because the Bengals defense gives up an average of 14.7 FPG to tight ends, which ranks No. 26 in the league. Njoku should be a big part of Cleveland’s game plan this week.
D/ST
Denver at Oakland. The Broncos D/ST has scored at least seven fantasy points in each of its past five games. During that stretch, Denver recorded 14 sacks and twice scored 13 or more fantasy points. Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has been sacked 48 times this season, the third-highest mark in the NFL. Oakland has turned the ball over six times in its past three games.
Bench
Running Back
Matt Breida, San Francisco vs. Chicago. Fantasy gamers who have been patient with Breida this season keep getting rewarded. After missing Week 14 due to injury, he bounced back with 14.6 PPR points against Seattle. But he’s hard to trust in the fantasy title game against the Bears buzz-saw rush defense. Chicago holds opposing backs to a 3.6 YPC average, and has only given up four rushing TDs to the position. The Bears rank No. 3 in fantasy points allowed per game (19.1) to running backs.
Kenyan Drake, Miami vs. Jacksonville. Drake’s role remains unchanged despite the Dolphins placing Frank Gore on injured reserve. This is further proof that Miami views Drake strictly as a change-of-pace back who excels in the passing game. He saw one carry against the Vikings after Gore departed in the first half. The Dolphins will instead turn to Kalen Ballage to handle the lead role, meaning Drake won’t see an increase in touches. Keep him on the bench against a stout Jacksonville rush defense which ranks No. 5 in fantasy points allowed to running backs (20.5 per game).
Wide Receiver
Golden Tate, Philadelphia vs. Houston. The Eagles plans for Tate’s role in the offense are unclear, evidenced by his meager snap share. That makes him a complete fantasy dart throw, with borderline unplayable status. Since joining the team in Week 10, Tate plays an average of 48.1-percent of the snaps. He has one TD and one game with more than 50 receiving yards (85 vs. Washington). He’ll face more adversity in trying to develop a rapport with backup quarterback Nick Foles. Fade him against a Houston pass defense that ranks in the top-10 for fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers.
Tight End
Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay at Dallas. Brate flopped in a plus positional matchup against the Ravens last week, and fantasy gamers would do well to avoid him in championship games. He hasn’t scored more than eight PPR points in a road game this season. The Bucs have scored only 26 points over the past two games, and face a Cowboys team ranked No. 5 in total defense. Jameis Winston has thrown eight TDs to 10 INTs on the road this season, and his away QB rating (80.9) is nine points lower than his home rating (89.1).
D/ST
Baltimore at Los Angeles Chargers. The Ravens D/ST finished inside the top-10 by scoring seven fantasy points against the Bucs last. They’ll face a stiffer challenge from a Chargers team that commits fewer turnovers and averages more points per game than Tampa Bay. The Chargers rank No. 12 in turnover differential (+3), while the Bucs rank No. 31 (-16). In an uncharacteristic showing last week, Phillip Rivers threw two interceptions. But that was only the second time he threw multiple picks in a game this season.
