Dion Lewis flies under the fantasy football radar due to circumstances out of his control. But his recent play, despite a down Week 10, demands more attention from fantasy gamers.
Lewis and the Titans suffered through a brutal first half of the season, both because of their tough schedule and Marcus Mariota’s injury issues and shaky play. But the Titans arrow points up for the remainder of the season, and Lewis figures to be a big contributor to their success.
Don’t be fooled by Week 10’s results. Derrick Henry plays second fiddle to Lewis, and his two touchdowns were the result of a perfect game script. Tennessee crushed the Patriots and didn’t need Lewis to be his usual dynamic self. In the two games prior, Lewis topped 20 PPR points in each. During that span he rushed for 153 yards on 32 carries (4.8 yards per carry) and caught all 10 of his targets for 124 yards and a TD.
Dion Lewis vs. Derrick Henry: The Breakdown
On the season, Lewis’ owns a 69.4-percent snap share compared to 37.7-percent for Henry. He leads the Titans backfield in rush yards, receiving yards, carries, targets and red zone touches. Lewis’ numbers are trending up and he’s shown the ability to shake defenders and create yards. He ranks No. 6 with 45 evaded tackles, and No. 4 with a 36-percent juke rate. Both marks are better than Henry’s.
Henry was a popular add on the waiver wire, but don’t expect another big game from him against the Colts. Indianapolis runs an average of 67.3 plays per game, which ranks No. 4 in the NFL. The Colts also score an average of 28.9 points per game. Those factors make for an appealing game script for Lewis. Indianapolis allows an average of 27.2 fantasy points per game and 107.8 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs.
Bank On
Running Back
Phillip Lindsay, Denver at Los Angeles Chargers. Don’t shy away from him because of the return of Royce Freeman. Lindsay has seen fewer than 12 carries just twice this season and sees an average of three targets per game. That gives him a safe floor regardless of Freeman’s status. Furthermore, Lindsay successfully handled the lead role in Freeman’s absence and the Broncos would be wise to ease Freeman back in. The Chargers are a middle-of-the-pack rush defense which yields an average of 4.4 YPC to opposing backs.
Wide Receiver
Amari Cooper, Dallas at Atlanta. Cooper’s usage since joining the Cowboys is encouraging. In Weeks 9-10 he played 90.2- and 85.9-percent of the snaps while seeing a combined 18 targets with six coming in the red zone. He turned that into 11 receptions for 133 yards and a TD. That level of consistency should continue against the Falcons full-of-holes pass defense. Atlanta ranks No. 27 in pass defense, and allows opposing receivers to score an average of 42.6 FPG.
Corey Davis, Tennessee at Indianapolis. Davis showed the league why he’s a legitimate No. 1 receiver by shredding Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore to the tune of 7-125-1. He draws on paper what looks like a matchup to avoid as the Colts limit opposing receivers to 33.6 FPG, which ranks No. 8. But Davis’ matchup against Pierre Desir is one to exploit. Desir’s +9.8 coverage rating ranks No. 44. With Marcus Mariota and the Titans playing at a high level, roll with Davis again this week.
Quarterback
Dak Prescott, Dallas at Atlanta. The presence of Amari Cooper opens up the field for Prescott, who’s been on somewhat of a hot streak. He’s eclipsed 20 fantasy points in three of his past four games after not hitting that mark the first five games of the season. Prescott also has three rush TDs during that span, which helps raise his floor. He’ll have a field day against the Falcons. Opposing QBs are completing 71-percent of their passes against Atlanta, and the Falcons yield an average of 23.7 FPG to them. With a favorable rest-of-season schedule, Prescott makes for an appealing waiver wire add. He’s owned in less than half of Yahoo! leagues.
Tight End
Evan Engram, New York Giants vs. Tampa Bay. He’s struggled with inconsistency since returning from injury in Week 7. However, Eli Manning has targeted him 18 times in the past three games and Engram scored in Week 8. The Giants host the Bucs, who rank No. 25 in total defense. They’re particularly leaky against tight ends, giving up an average of 16.4 FPG. Only the Panthers (20.3 FPG) allow more points the position.
D/ST
Arizona vs. Oakland. I’m not ashamed to say I acquired the Cardinals defense via a trade package this week to play them against the Raiders. In Week 9, San Francisco’s D/ST scored 15 fantasy points against Oakland. The following week, the Chargers scored 13 fantasy points. To make matters worse for the Raiders, they’ll be without Martavis Bryant, and Jordy Nelson is highly questionable with a knee injury. Arizona’s pass rush has generated 29 sacks, which ranks No. 6 in the league. Opposing defenses sacked Derek Carr 11 times in the past two games.
Bench
Running Back
Jordan Howard, Chicago vs. Minnesota. With two of the top-ranked overall defenses in the league facing off, expect a low-scoring, tightly contested game. That doesn’t favor Howard’s skill set as a grinder who needs a big league to succeed and is seldom targeted in the passing game. He faces a rush defense that’s allowed two TDs to opposing backs and holds them to 3.6 YPC and an average of less than 90 yards per game. That’s bad news for someone who averages a pedestrian 3.5 YPC and needs to find the end zone to be fantasy relevant. Howard’s backfield mate Tarik Cohen offers more fantasy upside this week.
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota at Chicago. On the other side of the ball in this game, Cook faces an uphill battle as well. He was eased into action with 10 carries in his Week 10 return from injury, and caught all four of his targets. Latavius Murray, who Cook splits time with, also got 10 carries. However, of Cook’s 89 rush yards, 70 came on one play. Take that play away and Cook averaged 2.1 YPC. He’s also hampered by poor run-blocking, as Minnesota’s offensive line ranks No. 29 in that category. To make things even worse on Cook, the Bears have yielded a single rushing TD to a running back this season.
Wide Receiver
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis vs. Tennessee. Hilton, listed as a bench last week, struggled on the road against the Jaguars and scored 10 PPR points. He should remain on your bench this week with a matchup against the Titans top cornerback looming. Adoree’ Jackson sports a +31.6 coverage rating and in his past two games limited both Josh Gordon and Amari Cooper to under 55 receiving yards with no TDs. Andrew Luck spreads the ball around and Hilton hasn’t seen more than seven targets since his return from injury. The Colts should look to exploit other matchups.
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati at Baltimore. So much for Boyd shining in A.J. Green’s absence. He went dark in Week 10, catching three-of-four targets for 65 yards and no TDs against the Saints. The same Saints who rank No. 28 in pass defense and allow the most FPG to opposing wide receivers. Now he faces a team on the opposite end of the spectrum from New Orleans. The Ravens’ pass defense ranks No. 2, and they hold opposing receivers to the sixth-fewest FPG (32.3). Boyd draws a tough CB matchup against Brandon Carr and his +39.9 coverage rating, which ranks No. 7.
Quarterback
Andy Dalton, Cincinnati at Baltimore. The Red Rifle hasn’t fired on all cylinders in quite some time. He’s topped 20 fantasy points once in his past five games, and has thrown eight TDs to four interceptions in that span. Don’t trust him against a Ravens defense which holds opposing QBs to an average of 16.4 FPG. Baltimore is also tied for the third-fewest passing TDs allowed (12).
Tight End
Jared Cook, Oakland at Arizona. Despite 11 targets in the past two games, Cook only has six catches for 72 yards and no TDs to show for it. With Martavis Bryant out and Jordy Nelson also injured, the Cardinals can pay more attention to stopping one of the only weapons the Raiders have left. Arizona’s defense has only allowed two TDs to opposing tight ends and holds them to an average of 9.3 FPG.
D/ST
Minnesota at Chicago. The Bears don’t turn the ball over and they score a lot of points. It’s not rocket science, just good football that’s bad for Minnesota’s defense. Chicago leads the league in turnover differential with 24 takeaways to 11 giveaways (13). In their past five games the Bears averaged 31.6 points per game.
