Titans running back Derrick Henry brutalized the Jacksonville defense with a rushing performance for the ages in Week 14. He broke off the longest run from scrimmage in NFL history, scoring on an insane 99-yard scamper highlighted by several savage stiff-arms. Henry rushed 17 times for a franchise record 238 yards – a ridiculous 14 yards per carry average – and four touchdowns for an awe-inspiring 47.8 fantasy points. It was the best individual fantasy performance of the season.
Only a select few fantasy gamers got to experience the thrill of having Henry in their lineups, as he was started in just 17-percent of Yahoo! leagues. A fantasy rollercoaster ride all season, he booms one week and busts the next. So should Henry be inserted into Week 15 lineups with the playoffs on the line?
The answer is a resounding yes.
After torching the Jaguars No. 21-ranked rush defense, Henry draws another favorable matchup against the Giants. New York allows an average of 121.8 rush yards per game to opposing running backs, who have scored 13 TDs against them. The Giants also give up the sixth-most fantasy points in the NFL to the position, an average of 28.2 per game.
Tennessee is favored in a game with an over/under of 43.5. That’s good news for Henry, who has scored a TD and recorded more than 10 fantasy points in each of the team’s past four wins. In the Titans past two games, Henry earned more touches than backfield mate Dion Lewis. Since Week 10, Henry’s outscored Lewis in total fantasy points 87.6 to 39.7. If you take away Henry’s big game he still bests Lewis by a tenth of a point. During that span Henry scored seven TDs to zero for Lewis.
Henry earned the right to take the reins of Tennessee’s backfield, and the Titans would be wise to feed him early and often against the Giants. He’s a must-start RB2 who just might win you a fantasy title.
Bank On
Running Back
Chris Carson, Seattle at San Francisco. He strung together four straight games in which he either scored a TD or topped 10 fantasy points. In that stretch he averaged 4.4 YPC and also saw six targets. His 352 yards created ranks No. 9 among running backs and his 70 evaded tackles rank No. 5. He plays on a Seahawks team that ranks No. 1 in run plays per game (32.5). Facing the 49ers middling defense, Carson figures to improve on the 108 scrimmage yards he tallied against them in Week 13. This time he puts the cherry on top with a TD.
Wide Receiver
Tyler Lockett, Seattle at San Francisco. The deep ball specialist ranks No. 1 in fantasy points per target, a testament to his field-stretching ability. Lockett has a catch of 40-plus yards in five games this season and faces a Niners defense that’s allowed six receptions of 40-plus yards. Lockett grabbed a 52-yard TD the last time these two teams met in Week 13. He benefits from having Russell Wilson, who ranks No. 4 in deep ball completion percentage (44.8-percent), throwing him the ball. Wilson’s QB rating when targeting Lockett is 157.0, the best mark in the NFL. San Francisco allows opposing receivers to score an average of 38.7 FPG.
D.J. Moore, Carolina vs. New Orleans. He’s earned the most consistent target share among the Panthers receivers over the past four weeks, averaging eight per game. Moore’s snap share during that stretch skyrocketed to 90-percent, a big jump from his season average of 63.1-percent. In that same span, Curtis Samuel played an average of 74-percent of the snaps while Devin Funchess averaged a 67-percent snap share. Funchess’ snap share has dropped in each of the past three weeks to a season-low 36.8-percent in Week 14, a sign the team is ready to move on from the veteran. All these factors signal a huge game from Moore, who’s seen four red zone targets over the past two games. He looks primed to dust the Saints, who allow the most fantasy points to opposing receivers.
Quarterback
Josh Allen, Buffalo vs. Detroit. He’s fantasy football’s No. 1 QB over the past three weeks with a total of 73.3 points. Surprised? Allen gets the job done with his legs: he’s rushed for 335 yards and two TDs during that span. His rushing prowess gives him a safe floor, and the matchup against Detroit is not one to shy away from. Opposing QBs have rushed a meager 34 times against the Lions, the third-fewest in the league. Allen has rushed 31 times in the past three games. While other QBs averaged only 1.82 YPC against Detroit, it’s a miniscule sample size and that mark will be inflated when Allen is done. It might not be pretty to watch, but Allen offers a high ceiling and a safe floor for the playoffs.
Tight End
Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay at Baltimore. If there’s one area where the Ravens fall short on defending, it’s tight end. Their total defense ranks No. 2 in the league, but they’ve given up six TDs and almost 900 yards receiving to the position this season. That comes out to an average of 14.8 FPG, meaning opposing tight ends score the eighth-most fantasy points in the league against them. With Brate as the top tight end in Tampa Bay, he’s got a great chance to find the end zone again. He’s seen at least one red zone target in each of his past five games, and scored twice in Week 14.
D/ST
Buffalo vs. Detroit. Detroit’s -6 turnover differential ranks No. 23 in the league, and opposing D/ST’s score an average of 7.9 FPG against the Lions. Matthew Stafford has turned the ball over four times in the past three games, and was sacked five times. The Bills limit opposing quarterbacks to an average of 12.5 FPG, the best mark in the NFL. Lions running back Kerryon Johnson missed practice to start the week and hasn’t played since Week 11. He looks doubtful for this game, further hampering Detroit’s offense. Expect a top-10 performance from Buffalo’s D/ST in this one.
Bench
Running Back
Marlon Mack, Indianapolis vs. Dallas. Mack is hard to trust during his recent slump, as he hasn’t scored more than 12 PPR points since Week 8. He’s rushed for 235 yards over the past five games for an average of 3.6 YPC. TDs are the only thing keeping Mack afloat in fantasy, and scoring on Dallas won’t be easy. The Cowboys hold opposing running backs to an average of 20.8 FPG, which ranks No. 7. They have yielded five rushing TDs this season.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay at Chicago. The Bears just limited Todd Gurley to 58 yards from scrimmage and no TDs. Todd. Freaking. Gurley. It was by far his worst performance of the season. Opposing teams average 83.2 rushing yards per game against Chicago’s second-ranked rush defense, which has given up four TDs. Jones mysteriously did not touch the ball in the first quarter last week, though he did end up with a solid day (106 total yards, TD). With Joe Philbin at the helm following the firing of Mike McCarthy, Jones’ usage is unclear. Against a Bears team that ranks No. 3 in fantasy points allowed to running backs, he’s hard to trust.
Wide Receiver
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay at Baltimore. With DeSean Jackson unlikely to play this week, gamers will be tempted to again put Godwin in their lineups. But it’s not a good spot for Godwin, who’s had only two useful fantasy outings since Week 7. He led the Bucs in targets last week but managed to catch one pass for 13 yards. Jameis Winston’s inefficiency throwing the ball results in a 2.7 (on a scale of 1-4) target accuracy for Godwin, which ranks No. 76. He’ll see plenty of Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey, whose +59.9 coverage rating ranks No. 2 among the position. Humphrey has allowed four TDs this season. The Ravens defense ranks No. 4 in fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers (29.3 per game).
Corey Davis, Tennessee at New York Giants. Tennessee’s recent rushing resurgence and the emergence of Taywan Taylor led to Davis taking a back seat in the offense. The Titans have ramped up Taylor’s snap counts, and over the past three games he’s seen 14 targets, the same number as Davis. Davis was held in check against the Jaguars top-10 defense, and he’ll face another tough test against the Giants. New York yields an average of 31.2 FPG to opposing receivers, the seventh-best mark in the league. Davis will matchup primarily with cornerback Janoris Jenkins, who hasn’t allowed more than seven fantasy points in each of his past three games.
Quarterback
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay at Baltimore. Here’s the list of quarterbacks to score 20-plus fantasy points against the Ravens this season: Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, Patrick Mahomes. That’s it. And Winston won’t add his name to that list. Baltimore shuts down opposing quarterbacks, allowing them to average 15.8 FPG. On the road against the Ravens, who’re fighting for their playoff lives, Winston face plants. Keep him on the bench this week.
Tight End
Trey Burton, Chicago vs. Green Bay. Burton failed to reach five PPR points in each of his past four games, and hasn’t scored a TD since Week 9. When the Bears and Packers met in Week 1, Burton had one catch for 15 yards. The going won’t get any easier this time around, as the Packers rank No. 3 in fantasy points allowed to tight ends (8.7 per game average). They have allowed one TD to the position this season.
D/ST
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City. The first time these two teams met this season in Week 1, the Chiefs won 38-28 in a shootout. The Chargers D/ST scored negative points, the only time that’s happened this year. Kansas City averages 36 points per game and does a good job of protecting Patrick Mahomes, who’s been sacked 23 times, the fifth-fewest in the NFL. KC also ranks No. 10 in turnover differential (+6).
Editor’s Note
The photo of Derrick Henry is published under the GNU Free Documentation License. There were no changes made to the work.
