Bank On
Running Back
Wendell Smallwood, Philadelphia at New York Giants. He’s got a lot going for him in this matchup. The Giants have allowed the most receiving touchdowns (4) to opposing running backs and also allow them to score an average of 28 fantasy points per game. Already a top-20 PPR back this season, Smallwood will no longer cede touches to Jay Ajayi (ACL tear) and figures to lead the Eagles backfield in touches. His receiving skills give him a safe floor and massive upside against the Giants.
Chris Carson, Seattle vs. Oakland (London). The Seahawks recent commitment to the run has led to increased opportunity for Carson, who’s seen 51 carries in his last two games. Carson also topped 100 yards rushing in each of those games and is averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Seattle is currently fifth in the league in rushing attempts (143). Enter the Raiders, who allow opponents to average over five yards per carry and have given up five rushing touchdowns to opposing backs. Carson will yield some work to Mike Davis, but I think they both can be fantasy relevant against an Oakland defense allowing opposing backs to score an average of 28.4 fantasy points per game.
Wide Receiver
Calvin Ridley, Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay. Ridley has a great chance to bounce back after a down Week 5 (4-38-0). The Bucs had a bye week to shore up their defense, but that’s hard to do when your secondary is in shambles. Cornerbacks Vernon Hargreaves and Chris Conte were lost to injury, and the replacement rookie CBs are banged up as well. Only the Saints allow more fantasy points to opposing receivers than the Bucs (49 per game). If Ridley scores and Julio Jones doesn’t, the fantasy world may collectively freak out.
Sterling Shepard, New York Giants at Philadelphia. He’s seen at least seven targets and topped 75 yards receiving in each of his last three games, scoring twice. Shephard’s target share will again benefit from the absence of tight end Evan Engram (knee). The Eagles secondary has been mediocre at best, and their CBs have come under fire because of it. Now Sidney Jones is questionable (ankle), fans are calling for Jalen Mills to be benched and the team has only recorded three picks. Philadelphia also allows opposing receivers to score at an alarming rate, giving up seven touchdowns to the position. These are all good signs for Shepard, who should also benefit if the Eagles use double coverage on Odell Beckham Jr.
Quarterback
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay at Atlanta. This is a great spot start for Winston, but I also love his rest-of-season value. There is no reason to think he won’t recreate what Ryan Fitzpatrick did with the plethora of offensive weapons at his disposal. Facing a Falcons defense that has allowed the most points (163) in the NFL this season, Winston figures to feast. In the first five weeks, Atlanta has allowed the opposing quarterback to finish inside the top-10 for fantasy points four times. If you’ve been struggling to get consistent quarterback play Winston could be a difference-maker down the stretch. He has a favorable schedule and a juicy matchup against the Saints for the fantasy playoffs.
Tight End
C.J. Uzomah, Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh. He played 92 percent of the snaps in taking over starting duties for the injured Tyler Eifert in Week 5. Now he gets a plus matchup against the Steelers, who give up the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Austin Hooper (9-77) was able to take advantage of the Steelers in Week 5 and I expect more of the same from Uzomah. His role in the offense should grow and Andy Dalton has consistently thrown to his tight ends in the red zone.
D/ST
Green Bay vs. San Francisco. C.J. Beathard threw two interceptions and lost two fumbles last week against Arizona. He’s a big reason that the Niners have the worst turnover differential (-8) in the league. They have given the ball away 11 times. The Packers rank fourth in the NFL with 16 sacks, and haven’t allowed opposing quarterbacks to score many fantasy points (16.3 per game). Green Bay had a field day against Buffalo in Week 4 (23 fantasy points) and should put up another solid performance against San Francisco.
Bench
Running Back
Kenyon Drake, Miami vs. Chicago. He finally produced a nice line against the Bengals, catching 7 of 11 targets for 69 yards and a score. Drake added 46 rushing yards on six carries, but is still averaging under four yards per carry. He has 39 carries on the season, six fewer than teammate Frank Gore. For perspective, Todd Gurley leads the league in rushing attempts with 101. If the aforementioned wasn’t bad enough, Drake draws the Bears, who have the top-ranked fantasy defense vs. opposing running backs. Chicago has not yielded a rushing score to a running back and has allowed a league low 13 receptions to the position.
Alex Collins, Baltimore at Tennessee. Pop quiz: How many games has Collins outscored Buck Allen this season in PPR formats? The answer, depressingly, is one. With his fumbling issues and inconsistent usage, Collins, who was widely drafted as an RB2, is trending toward a bust. Allen is currently RB17 in PPR formats, while Collins is RB27, one spot above Bilal Powell. Now Collins travels to face the Titans, who haven’t given up a touchdown to a running back this season.
Wide Receiver
Corey Davis, Tennessee vs. Baltimore. Just when we thought the Titans offense was back on track it fizzled against Buffalo. Davis had just four catches for 49 yards. It was a big letdown after he was a star against the Eagles (9-161-1). It will be hard to trust him against the Ravens, especially in standard formats. Baltimore is better than average against opposing receivers, allowing 36 fantasy points per game. The Ravens are also tied for the sixth-most sacks (15) and should be able to pressure Marcus Mariota.
Alshon Jeffery, Philadelphia vs. New York Giants. The last time these teams met in September of 2017, Jeffery caught four of eight targets for 56 yards while seeing a lot of CB Janoris Jenkins. That figures to be the case again, which is bad news for Jeffery. The Giants boast a top-10 pass defense, and give up the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. That’s more bad news for Jeffery, who will need to score to produce a usable line. Unfortunately the Giants have only given up two receiving touchdowns to the position.
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill, Miami vs. Chicago. Tannehill somehow managed to post 0.00 fantasy points in a loss to New England. That’s really hard to do when you play almost the entire game, but Tannehill (11 of 20 for 100 yards and no touchdowns) did it by throwing a pick and fumbling. He was so bad, in fact, that the Dolphins benched him for … wait for it … Brock Osweiler. He followed up that inspiring performance with seven fantasy points against the Bengals. Now he faces one of the NFL’s best defenses in the Bears, who rank second in sacks (18) and third in interceptions (8).
Tight End
Geoff Swaim, Dallas vs. Jacksonville. Swaim has been a stalwart for the Cowboys the past three games, leading the team in receiving twice and scoring a touchdown. While his arrow is trending up, Swaim will have a tough time getting loose against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has allowed 20 catches, 240 yards and one touchdown to tight ends, an average of 10 fantasy points per game. That ranks in the top-10 against the position. I just don’t see a lot of opportunity here for Swaim.
D/ST
Denver vs. Los Angeles Rams. The Broncos let the Jets score 34 points and compile over 500 yards from scrimmage, including 323 rushing yards, in Week 5. They have scored six or more fantasy points only twice and now host one of the NFL’s best offenses in the Rams. Keep them out of your lineup.
