Fantasy points rained from the heavens on Thursday night as the Rams beat the Vikings 38-31 behind a career night from Jared Goff (26 of 33 for 465 yards and five touchdowns). Three Rams receivers scored and finished with over 100 yards but it was Cooper Kupp (9-162-2) who had the most fantasy points with just under 40 in PPR formats. Brandin Cooks added seven receptions for 116 yards and a score, and Robert Woods had five catches for 101 yards and a score.
Losers Light It Up, Too
Kirk Cousins and his talented corps or receivers didn’t disappoint either. Cousins passed for over 400 yards and three touchdowns, while both Adam Thielen (8-135-1) and Stefon Diggs (11-123-0) thrived. Dalvin Cook was active but ineffective, rushing 10 times for 20 yards. Given his draft position he’s trending toward bust. In news of the weird, Aldrick Robinson caught two touchdown passes on two targets after only being targeted once through the first three games. Do not pick him up off waivers.
Now, on to this week’s plays.
Bank On
Running Back
James White, New England vs. Miami. Rex Burkhead was placed on IR with a neck injury, opening the door for White in a favorable matchup. While Sony Michel may be a more popular play I think the Patriots will lean heavily on White, especially in the passing game. The Dolphins don’t defend pass-catching backs very well, as evidenced by the 23 receptions for 201 yards and a touchdown they’ve given up. White’s receiving chops will give him a safe floor in PPR formats, where he’ll be a more effective play.
Chris Carson, Seattle at Arizona. He finally saw the usage we’ve been waiting for in Week 3, racking up 102 yards on 32 carries (3.2 YPC). While his performance wasn’t very efficient, he out-touched Rashaad Penny 34-3. Now Carson gets the Cardinals, who have yielded 370 rushing yards and five touchdowns to opposing backs this season. Only the Chiefs give up more fantasy points per game to running backs than the Cardinals (38.3). Seattle is favored in a game where the over/under is around 38 points, so I like Carson’s chances of another heavy workload. He should get clock-killing duty and see any goal line carries.
CONTRARIAN SPECIAL: Royce Freeman, Denver vs. Kansas City. If you like a little risk with your fantasy points then Freeman is the play for you. He’ll look to build on the 53 rushing yards and a touchdown he posted against Baltimore, and should find more room to operate. The Chiefs defense allows the most fantasy points per game (38.8) to opposing running backs, who are averaging over five yards per carry. Kansas City also hemorrhages points to receiving backs. Speaking of which, Phillip Lindsay, who’s shown up Freeman so far, will be back in the lineup after being ejected for fighting in Week 3. I think both players are viable options as flex plays/RB3s.
Wide Receiver
Allen Robinson, Chicago vs. Tampa Bay. Robinson isn’t quite shaping up to be the locked-in receiver folks drafted him as, but he’s far from a bust. He’s the clear top option for Mitchell Trubisky and is ranked inside the top 20 at his position for targets (28) this season. He’s averaging just over 12 fantasy points per game and hasn’t scored a touchdown yet, but I really like his chances to score against the Bucs. Only the Chargers and Saints allow more fantasy points to opposing receivers than the Bucs (48), whose secondary has been rocked by injuries.
Jarvis Landry, Cleveland at Oakland. Count me in as a Baker Mayfield believer. When he zipped his first completion to Landry after taking over for Tyrod Tayler, visions of fantasy points danced in my head. The upgrade at quarterback positively impacts all the Browns skill players, but Landry should see the biggest bump. He’s a bonafide target hog who sees a ridiculous 35% target share, tops in the league according to Playerprofiler.com. Remember when the Raiders had a pass rush? Well, they don’t anymore and also give up an average of 45 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers. Mayfield will have time to throw and Landry will feast.
Quarterback
Andy Dalton, Cincinnati vs. Atlanta. Dalton doesn’t generate a ton of attention and he’s probably sitting on your waiver wire. But he’s put together decent fantasy performances against a couple of solid defenses (26 points vs. Baltimore; 22 points vs. Carolina). This week he’s at home against a Falcons defense which just lost S Ricardo Allen, S Keanu Neal and LB Deion Jones to injury and may be without DE Takkarist McKinley. On top of that, Atlanta allows opposing quarterbacks to score an average of 25 fantasy point per game. It’s time to fire the Red Rifle.
Tight End
Trey Burton, Chicago vs. Tampa Bay. Burton hasn’t been the player you drafted him to be, and that has led some to prematurely give up on the talented tight end. He’s had nine receptions, 90 receiving yards and one touchdown on 15 targets. Like the rest of Chicago’s offense he’s a work in progress, but I love his potential in the red zone. Burton has caught both his red zone targets this season and has one touchdown. He was standing alone in the end zone during Week 1 but was overlooked by Mitchell Trubisky for what would have been an easy score. The Bucs, fresh off letting Vance McDonald (4-112-1) dominate them, give up the most fantasy points in the league to tight ends.
D/ST
Seattle at Arizona. The Cardinals changed quarterbacks earlier than anticipated with Sam Bradford playing poorly. Rookie Josh Rosen was inserted into Week 3’s game against the Bears in the fourth quarter after Arizona blew a 14-point lead. It was a tough spot for Rosen, who threw an interception in the loss. Expect more rookie mistakes from Rosen, and expect Seattle to capitalize on them. Seattle’s defense is holding its own and coming off a huge performance against Dallas (five sacks, two interceptions, fumble recovery).
Bench
Running Back
Alex Collins, Baltimore at Pittsburgh. The Steelers have been stout against the run, holding opposing running backs to just 3.6 yards per carry (59 carries, 210 yards). They have yielded one rushing touchdown to a running back (Carlos Hyde). That’s problematic for Alex Collins, who is locked in a timeshare with notorious vulture Buck Allen. While both backs had good games against the Broncos middle-of-the-pack run defense, the sledding will be much tougher against Pittsburgh. Allen’s efficiency has been horrible but the Ravens insist on feeding him, including at the goal line. If a Baltimore back scores in this game, chances are good it’s going to be Allen. BTW, I’m not suggesting you start Allen, but you could do worse for a flex play in season-long leagues.
Isaiah Crowell, New York Jets at Jacksonville. The Crow will be a popular play this week after a big game against Cleveland and a hot start to the season. I’m not buying it. At the surface his 38 carries for 171 yards (4.5 YPC) looks super efficient. But take away his 62-yard scoring scamper in Week 1 and that number dips significantly (3.0 YPC). He’s had an easy schedule so far and that changes against the Jaguars vaunted defense.
Wide Receiver
Amari Cooper, Oakland vs. Cleveland. I believe in his talent, but Derek Carr throwing him the ball puts a serious damper on his fantasy value. Cooper needs a good matchup and a lot of luck to produce useful fantasy lines. He won’t get that in Week 4 against an up-and-coming Browns defense. Cleveland has nine sacks, five interceptions and six fumble recoveries through three games (32 fantasy points). The Browns held New Orleans and Pittsburgh to 21 points apiece, the lowest output for those teams this season. They’ll put pressure on Carr and force him into making bad decisions, like throwing to people other than Cooper.
Marquise Goodwin, San Francisco at Los Angeles Chargers. You might look at this matchup and scratch your head, as the Chargers allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. But with Jimmy Garoppolo out of the picture (torn ACL) the Niners will turn to C.J. Beathard. How bad is Beathard? In the six games he started last season he completed 54% of his passes for an average of 6.38 yards. He threw more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (4). His QBR was 32.6. For comparison, Tom Brady’s 2017 numbers were 66.3% completion rate, 7.88 average and 73.2 QBR. Beathard went 1-5 as a starter. He will dink, and he will dunk. And that won’t benefit Goodwin.
Quarterback
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis vs. Houston. He’s yet to score 20 fantasy points this season and hasn’t eclipsed 200 yards passing for two straight weeks. There is concern about his arm strength after the Colts opted to let Jacoby Brissett throw a Hail Mary against Philadelphia. Luck’s adjusted yards per attempt (4.9) is among the worst in the league. Houston is currently a top-10 fantasy defense and should be able to pressure Luck.
Tight End
Vance McDonald, Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore. Don’t chase points with McDonald, who had a blow-up game against the Bucs (4-112-1). Neither McDonald or Jesse James has seen more than five targets in a game this year, and each of their respective breakout games (James vs. Chiefs) are going to end up being outliers. The Ravens have not allowed a touchdown to the position this season.
D/ST
Miami at New England. This will be the first real test for the Dolphins defense, and I say they fail. They’ve posted good numbers against questionable offenses (Titans, Jets, Raiders) and rank sixth among fantasy defenses in points scored. But I just can’t see a scenario in which the Patriots let Miami embarrass them at home and fall to 1-3. Angry Tom Brady will prevail, even with a lackluster supporting cast. Having Josh Gordon on the field should benefit Brady greatly.
