Indianapolis Colts tight end Jack Doyle (hip) won’t play today against the Eagles, opening the door for teammate Eric Ebron. Bad news for Doyle means an upgrade for Ebron, who was previously listed as a “bench.” The reasoning behind that? Despite having caught two touchdowns, Ebron has seen nine targets to Doyle’s 15 and hasn’t played half the snaps (53) that Doyle (136) has. But that will change with Doyle out of the picture and I fully expect Ebron’s target share and snap count to rise considerably. He’s a back-end TE1 with touchdown upside against an Eagles defense that hasn’t been great against the position this season.
Leonard Fournette (hamstring) also appears headed for the bench this week, so if you kept T.J. Yeldon you’ll be rewarded once again.
Now, on to this week’s plays …
Bank On
Running Back
Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati at Carolina. If you picked him up off the waiver wire you can plug him into your lineup. Joe Mixon is out following minor knee surgery and Bernard is the lead dog in his absence, meaning he will see upwards of 20 touches. Tevin Coleman rushed for over 100 yards and had four catches last week against the Panthers and I think Bernard will do something similar.
Jordan Howard, Chicago at Arizona. Howard has been solid but hasn’t had a big game yet and I think that changes against the Cardinals. Let’s be honest, Arizona is terrible on both sides of the ball (don’t get me started on David Johnson) and the Bears figure to take a big lead in this one. That means Howard will be heavily utilized in clock-killing and should see more carries than the 15 per game he’s averaged this season. Another good sign? He’s being featured more in the pass attack, catching 8 of 9 targets for 58 yards.
Wide Receiver
Nelson Agholor, Philadelphia vs. Indianapolis. With Carson Wentz back under center for the Eagles as home favorites against the Colts, I’m all in on Agholor. He’ll again benefit from the absence of Alshon Jeffrey and soak up targets. He’s the eighth-most targeted receiver so far (22) and I don’t think the change at quarterback will affect that. The Colts secondary has been good against opposing receivers but Nelson will have enough chances to succeed. The addition of Jordan Matthews doesn’t concern me this week.
Keelan Cole, Jacksonville vs. Tennessee. Are you feelin’ Keelan? His one-handed catch against New England is must-see TV. Cole has made a splash so far this season and looks to be settling in as the Jaguars top receiving option. He tagged the Patriots for 116 yards and a touchdown, and gets a more favorable matchup against the Titans. Tennessee has given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing receivers.
ARE YOU KIDDING @Air4Cole?!
????: CBS #DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/glLod6Oefk
— NFL (@NFL) September 16, 2018
Tight End
George Kittle, San Francisco at Kansas City. Kittle is the sixth-most targeted tight end (13) in the league facing the defense that has given up the third-most points to the position this season. Marquise Goodwin is no lock to play and if he’s not out there it will open up more opportunities for Kittle. I’m starting him over Jared Cook, Jack Doyle and David Njoku.
Quarterback
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tampa Bay vs. Pittsburgh. I don’t see how the Bucs can bench Fitz for Jameis Winston in Week 4. And I don’t see how you can bench him in Week 3 vs. the Steelers defense, which has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. This one figures to be a shootout so fire Fitz up.
D/ST
Chicago at Arizona. If you watched the Khalil Mack-led Bears torment the Seahawks on Monday night you’ll probably have deja vu. Seattle had trouble moving the ball and the Bears feasted by sacking Russell Wilson six times. Arizona’s offense is depressingly worse than Seattle’s, only managing to make it past mid-field once against the Rams. Ouch.
Bench
Running Back
Peyton Barber, Tampa Bay vs. Pittsburgh. He’s had a whopping 35 carries, sixth-most in the league. Trouble is he can’t do anything with them as he’s averaging 2.6 yards per carry. He does not have a rushing touchdown. Out of the 10 backs with the most carries this season only Carlos Hyde (2.8 YPC) comes close to Barber’s futility. Obviously Ronald Jones II isn’t ready yet or he’d be out there against Pittsburgh.
Wide Receiver
Corey Davis, Tennessee at Jacksonville. I don’t really care if it’s Marcus Mariota or Blaine Gabbert throwing him the ball, I’m not trusting Davis against one of the NFL’s top secondaries. He’ll need a touchdown to be fantasy relevant. Are you willing to bank on that?
Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona vs. Chicago. Sorry Larry, but you should’ve retired instead of returning to this nightmare. Hopefully we’ll see Josh Rosen sooner than later, but until then Fitzgerald is shaping up to be unplayable. With Sam Bradford under center Fitzgerald has 10 catches for 104 yards in two games. Factor in Fitzgerald’s injured hamstring and the Bears defense, and that spells disaster.
Quarterback
Dak Prescott, Dallas at Seattle. Prescott has a weak receiving corps and hasn’t topped 17 fantasy points this season. I don’t see that trend changing against Seattle. The Seahawks no longer feature the Legion of Boom, but their defense proved capable against the Bears. They picked off Mitchell Trubisky twice and sacked him twice. Trubisky, who unlike Prescott has an array of offensive weapons to throw to, finished with 14 fantasy points.
D/ST
Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay. The Steelers leaky defense faces the league’s top-scoring offense in a matchup that oddsmakers are predicting a combined score of over 50 points. So yea, you can’t start Pittsburgh with any confidence.
