Bank On
Running Back
Phillip Lindsay, Denver at Arizona. He’s taking over this backfield slowly but surely. In the past three games Lindsay out-touched teammate Royce Freeman 39 to 25. On the season, Lindsay’s 44.4-percent opportunity share outpaces Freeman’s (35.6-percent). Week 7 will be Lindsay’s best game of the season against an Arizona defense allowing 35.4 fantasy points per game. Opponents have rushed 183 times against the Cardinals, the most in the league. That has yielded 832 yards (4.5 yards per carry) and eight touchdowns. Lindsay is averaging 5.7 YPC and has four breakaway runs.
Tarik Cohen, Chicago vs. New England. A top-10 back in PPR formats in each of his last two games, Cohen is averaging 15 fantasy points per game. The Bears defense – especially the secondary – showed cracks against Miami and the Patriots will exploit them. That will lead to a high-scoring affair between two powerful offenses, a game script that heavily favors Cohen. He’s caught 21 of 25 targets, hasn’t dropped a pass and is averaging 8.1 yards per touch. Opposing backs have 36 catches for 337 yards and two touchdowns against the Patriots.
Wide Receiver
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati at Kansas City. After a quiet Week 5 against Miami, Boyd lit up the Steelers (7-62-2) and he’ll continue that trend in Kansas City. His 21.2-percent red zone target share shows Andy Dalton fully trusts his No. 2 receiver. Boyd’s matchup against cornerback Kendall Fuller, who covers the slot the majority of the time, is a plus one. Fuller has allowed 35 catches for 502 yards and three TDs (-21.6 coverage rating). Opposing receivers score an average of 39.4 fantasy points per game against Kansas City.
Jarvis Landry, Cleveland at Tampa Bay. If Landry fails to produce against the Bucs it’s time to panic. He’s had arguably the most favorable schedule for WRs in the league so far but needs volume to stay afloat. His 65 targets rank seventh overall, but he’s caught 31 passes for 392 yards and a TD. He hit a season low with two catches against the Chargers, but will rebound here. Tampa Bay allows the second-most fantasy points per game (49.7) to opposing receivers. The Falcons totaled 354 receiving yards and three TDs against the Bucs in Week 6.
Quarterback
Joe Flacco, Baltimore vs. New Orleans. Facing tough defenses in each of the past two weeks (Cleveland, Tennessee) Flacco failed to deliver the fantasy goods. But he’s shown he can exploit weaker defenses as evidenced by his 23 fantasy points against the Bengals and 26 against the Steelers. After three straight weeks on the road Flacco benefits from the comforts of home against a leaky Saints defense. No team gives up more fantasy points to opposing receivers than the Saints, who also allow opposing QBs to score an average of 25.1 fantasy points.
Tight End
David Njoku, Cleveland at Tampa Bay. Among tight ends only Zach Ertz garners more targets than Njoku. No tight end has more targets than Njoku’s 23 over the past two weeks. Baker Mayfield has thrown 92 pass attempts during that span and that volume will continue against the Bucs, who allow a league-worst 34.6 points per game. Tampa Bay also allows the most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (20.5).
D/ST
Indianapolis vs. Buffalo. Journeyman Derek Anderson, who the Bills signed last week, gets the spot start for injured QB Josh Allen (elbow). Buffalo brought him in so it didn’t have to start Nathan Peterman (nine career INTs to three TDs). But with limited time to learn the playbook and a weak supporting cast, Anderson figures to struggle. He won’t get much help, as the Bills have the second-worst total offense in the NFL behind Arizona.
Bench
Running Back
Lamar Miller, Houston at Jacksonville. Miller faces an angry Jacksonville defense that was just embarrassed by Dallas. As home favorites the Jaguars shut down Houston’s rushing attack, rendering Miller a low-end flex play at best. His pedestrian 3.7 YPC will be on full display and he’ll need targets to bail him out. But Jacksonville hasn’t given up a receiving TD to a running back this season, limiting opponents to 208 yards on 26 receptions. Alfred Blue’s usage cuts into Miller’s workload, further dropping his value.
Isaiah Crowell, New York Jets vs. Minnesota. He’s either boomed or busted in every game this season and can’t be trusted against the Vikings. Crowell averaged 3.0 YPC on 13 carries last week against Indianapolis, and faces tougher sledding against a better Minnesota run defense. The Vikings allow an average of 18.2 fantasy points per game to opposing backs and hold them to 3.8 YPC.
Wide Receiver
Albert Wilson, Miami vs. Detroit. Week 7’s waiver wire wonder is of the one-hit variety. His production to date in yards after the catch (320) and yards per target (11.2) is unsustainable. Detroit’s 97 receptions allowed are a league low, and its 1,234 receiving yards allowed are second-best. That’s much stiffer competition than Wilson faced in Week 6 against Chicago in his perfect fantasy storm. If you picked up Wilson off waivers try to trade him while his value is at its absolute peak.
Demaryius Thomas, Denver at Arizona. Top-ranked cornerback Patrick Peterson awaits Thomas, who faces an uphill battle with shadow coverage likely. Peterson’s +36 coverage rating and 6.8 fantasy points allowed per game power Arizona’s secondary. He’s the main reason the Cardinals have allowed two receiving TDs and fewer than 1,000 yards receiving.
Quarterback
Deshaun Watson, Houston at Jacksonville. Coming off his worst fantasy outing of the season, Watson is expected to start despite a chest injury. Keep him on your bench. Buffalo sacked Watson seven times, forcing him to lose a fumble. The constant pressure also forced Watson into throwing two interceptions. Jacksonville, coming off its embarrassing loss to Dallas, will be hungry and successful in getting after Watson. The Jags hold opposing QBs to an average of 15 fantasy points per game (including Patrick Mahomes’ 15.8).
Tight End
Greg Olsen, Carolina at Philadelphia. The good news: he played a full complement of snaps coming back from a foot injury and saw seven targets. The bad news: he was limited in practice with the same foot injury Wednesday and draws a tough matchup against the Eagles. Philadelphia limits opposing tight ends to 8.0 fantasy points per game, best in the league. The Eagles have given up one touchdown to the position.
D/ST
Baltimore vs. New Orleans. The Ravens expose weak offenses and score tons of fantasy points against them (see Buffalo, Tennessee games). But they’ve had a hard time against more potent offensive opponents (see Cincinnati, Pittsburgh games). New Orleans fits into the latter category and is averaging a league-best 36 points per game.
