The Bucs just won consecutive games for the first time since starting the season 2-0, and Adam Humphries was a big part of that. His recent hot streak coincides with the start of the fantasy football playoffs and a visit this week from the Saints. It’s an ideal matchup for Humphries against New Orleans, which ranks No. 30 in pass defense and allows the most fantasy football points per game to opposing receivers.
The Bucs slot man has scored a touchdown in three consecutive games while recording at least 50 receiving yards in each. He’s met or exceeded that yardage total in his past six games. When Tampa Bay quarterbacks throw to Humphries, their average QB rating is 115.8, which ranks No. 21 in the league. Jameis Winston targeted Humphries in the red zone twice in Week 13, and Humphries has nine red zone targets and five TDs on the season.
Humphries draws a Week 14 matchup against a Saints defense that allows an average of 279 passing yards per game. Opposing receivers score the most fantasy points in the league against New Orleans, which has yielded 17 TDs to the position. He’ll matchup primarily with cornerback P.J. Williams, who plays 51.9-percent of his snaps in the slot. A matchup with Williams isn’t one to shy away from: his +1.8 coverage rating ranks No. 61. He allows an average of 12.3 FPG.
Bank On
Wide Receiver
Amari Cooper, Dallas vs. Philadelphia. Cooper shook his boom-or-bust style that frustrated gamers when he was with Oakland. Since his first game with the Cowboys in Week 9, he’s scored at least 13 fantasy points in all but one contest. The Cowboys have lost one game since Cooper joined the team, and he’s averaging eight targets per game during that span. He draws a plus matchup against Philadelphia’s No. 26-ranked pass defense. The Eagles allow opponents receivers to average 41 FPG, the second-worst mark in the NFL.
Running Back
Jaylen Samuels, Pittsburgh at Oakland. First things first: play him at tight end in Yahoo! leagues and anywhere else he’s TE/RB eligible. Be creative. In one standard league I’m starting three wide receivers, four running backs, and technically, zero tight ends because of him. Let that sink in. He’s in line for 15-20 touches in the Steelers fantasy friendly offense, with Stevan Ridley also mixing in. Samuels has carried the ball 12 times for 31 yards (2.6 YPC) this season, a small sample size that doesn’t inspire confidence. But he’s caught 7-of-9 targets for 54 yards and two TDs. And it’s in the passing game where the converted tight end will shine, especially in PPR formats. He should also find room to run on the Raiders. Opposing teams running backs average 20.6 FPG against Oakland’s No. 31-ranked rush defense.
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota at Seattle. He’s seen a whopping 13 targets over his past two games while scoring 16 or more fantasy points in each. The Seahawks front five doesn’t give up a ton of yards on the ground, but running backs have found success in the passing game against them. Seattle has allowed 747 receiving yards to running backs; only the Chiefs (809) allow more. With Kirk Cousins throwing an average of 40.9 pass attempts per game, Cook gets a big target share in an exploitable matchup.
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland vs. Carolina. Mayfield, listed as a bench last week, threw three interceptions against Houston and finished with 13.9 fantasy points. It was his worst showing since Week 9 against the Steelers. But he gets a good shot to right the ship against the Panthers, who allow the sixth-most FPG (20.2) to opposing quarterbacks. The Panthers faced Jameis Winston and Russell Wilson in their past two games, and each QB scored 22 fantasy points. Mayfield has been more accurate with his throws of late: he’s completed 74-percent of his passes over the past four games. In that span he attempted 131 passes for an average of 33 per game.
Tight End
Jared Cook, Oakland vs. Pittsburgh. The last beacon of hope in a dismal offense, Cook scored in three straight games while recording at least 11 fantasy points in each. His 19.1-percent target share ranks No. 5 among tight ends, and is a testament to his place in the passing game order. He’ll notch another productive day facing the Steelers, whose defense allows an average of 13.8 FPG to the position.
D/ST
New York Giants at Washington. In typical Mark Sanchez fashion, Mr. Butt Fumble threw an interception and fumbled – he recovered – in relief of Colt McCoy. Now the starting signal caller, just like the good old days, Sanchez will make his first start since 2015 against the Giants. He carries a TD:INT ratio of 86:87 in 78 career games. He’s fumbled 31 times. The reeling Redskins, losers of their last three, should be easy prey for the Giants.
Bench
Running Back
Dion Lewis, Tennessee vs. Jacksonville. It’s been a rough stretch for Lewis, who hasn’t finished in the top-10 at his position since Week 9. Week 13 marked just the second time this season he saw fewer than 10 touches. He was out-touched 12-8 by Derrick Henry. The last time these two teams met in Week 3, the Jags held Lewis in check (7.0 fantasy points). Expect more of the same here from the Jaguars, who limit opposing backs to 17.9 FPG, which ranks No. 2 in the NFL.
Jordan Howard, Chicago vs. Los Angeles Rams. With Mitchell Trubisky expected to return from injury, this game looks to be a track meet. The over/under of 52 points backs that up, which is not good news for Howard. His grinding running style doesn’t lend itself well to uptempo games. It’s more suited to when the Bears face inferior opponents and jump to an early lead. Against the Rams, who rank No. 2 in scoring average (37 points per game), that won’t be the case. Los Angeles limits opposing running backs to 23.4 FPG, and Tarik Cohen will claim the biggest share.
Wide Receiver
Kenny Golladay, Detroit at Arizona. Matthew Stafford’s completion percentage has plummeted in the second half of the season. Post-Week 8, he’s completing 53-percent of his passes. His 4:6 TD:INT ratio during that span is even worse. He’s also dealing with a back injury. That doesn’t bode well for Golladay, who caught 25-of-47 passes during Stafford’s decline. With Golladay atop the pecking order in Detroit, he’s going to see a whole bunch of Patrick Peterson, PlayerProfiler.com’s No.5-ranked cornerback. If Peterson shadows Golladay, he’s in for a long day. Golladay might avoid Peterson on formations he plays out of the slot, but that won’t be many considering Golladay’s 23.8-percent slot rate.
Demaryius Thomas, Houston vs. Indianapolis. Thomas had a nice Week 12 line (4-38-2), but outside of that has been minimally involved in the Texans offense. Since his first game as a Texan in Week 9, Thomas hasn’t seen more than five targets or had more than four catches in a game. He’s also not running many routes: his 21 average routes run with Houston is down from the 27 he averaged with Denver. The Colts give up the second-fewest yards to opposing receivers, who average 30.2 FPG against them.
Quarterback
Tom Brady, New England at Miami. TB12 hasn’t reached 20 fantasy points since his Week 7 matchup against Chicago. Since that game he’s thrown for a total of four TDs. On the season, he ranks outside the top-10 (No. 14) in fantasy points among his peers. His 37.8 pass plays per game average ranks No. 15, and the Patriots run-pass ratio is 55.77-percent to 44.3-percent. The Dolphins allow an average of 17.9 points to the position, and Brady should finish right around that mark. That won’t tilt a playoff matchup in favor of fantasy gamers who opt to start him.
Tight End
Jordan Reed, Washington at New York Giants. His recent play has been better as he recorded finishes of TE2 and TE7 in Weeks 11 and 12, respectively. But with Mark Sanchez now under center, Reed’s value diminishes. Sanchez will make his first start since 2015 against the Giants. He carries a TD:INT ratio of 86:87 in 78 career games. Avoid Reed in this situation.
D/ST
Chicago vs. Los Angeles Rams. Opposing D/ST’s score an average of -0.8 points against the Rams, who rank No. 2 in scoring average (37 points per game). The Rams also do a good job of protecting Jared Goff, who’s been sacked 26 times this season. For comparison, Dak Prescott has been sacked 45 times. The Rams also rank No. 2 – behind the Bears – in turnover differential (+11).
