Bank On
Running Back
Chris Carson, Seattle vs. Los Angeles Chargers. He’s coming off a 25-carry, 105-yard rushing performance in a game that Rashaad Penny didn’t play a snap in. Mike Davis carried the ball 10 times. The Seahawks are tied for third in rush attempts (222) and face a Los Angeles team allowing opposing RBs to average 4.5 yards per carry. Before the Chargers Week 8 bye, Dion Lewis rushed 13 times for 91 yards (7 YPC) against them. Carson’s demonstrated efficiency translates into fantasy points. He ranks in the top-10 for yards created (203), yards created per carry (1.83) and evaded tackles (39). Now the bad news: he’s nursing a hip injury and will be a game-time decision. Reports say the Seahawks are optimistic he’ll play. If he’s active I’m starting Carson.
Latavius Murray, Minnesota vs. Detroit. Murray has successfully shouldered the lead back role in Dalvin Cook’s (hamstring injury) absence, scoring in three consecutive games while topping 20 PPR points in each. Cook is expected to play on a limited basis, so Murray should again handle the bulk of carries. As evidenced by his 24 carries against Arizona, the Vikings lean on Murray against weak run defenses. Enter the Lions, whose defensive line ranks No. 31 in stuffed percentage, and No. 30 in overall run blocking according to Football Outsiders. They allow 5.54 YPC to opposing RBs. Over his past three games, Murray averages 5.4 YPC.
Wide Receiver
Devin Funchess, Carolina vs. Tampa Bay. Funchess fizzed in Week 8, catching three passes for 27 yards against Baltimore, his worst outing of the season. Needing a get-right game, Funchess and the Panthers welcome Tampa Bay to town. The Bucs have given up at least one TD to a receiver in every game this season. The 13 TDs scored against them is tied for the most in the league. Funchess’ eight red zone targets lead the Panthers and rank No. 8 overall. He’ll likely see the most of Bucs CB Brent Grimes, whose -22.9 coverage rating signals a great matchup.
Josh Gordon, New England vs. Green Bay. Gordon hasn’t had a monster game since joining the Patriots, but that’s about to change. He’s played at least 80-percent of the snaps in each of the past three games while seeing 22 targets, including two red zone targets. The Packers have yielded 12 TDs to receivers, and just let the Rams’ Jared Goff pass for nearly 300 yards and two TDs. In a game oddsmakers figure will see upwards of 55 total points, Gordon gets a big piece of the Patriots offensive pie.
Quarterback
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tampa Bay at Carolina. The beard is back at the helm for the Bucs. In relief of Jameis Winston, Fitzpatrick finished Week 8 as fantasy’s QB12 despite only playing a half. He brings to the table an average of 310 passing yards per game, ranking No. 6 in the league. He carries a respectable 13-5 TD/INT ratio, and shines in the efficiency department. Fitzpatrick ranks first in adjusted yards per attempt (10.4), air yards per attempt (7.5) and deep ball completion percentage (65-percent). He also ranks No. 1 in fantasy points per dropback. Fire up Fitzy against the Panthers middling pass defense, which gives up an average of 255 passing yards per game and has allowed 13 pass TDs.
Tight End
Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota vs. Detroit. In the past four games he hasn’t topped 10 PPR points or had more than 41 receiving yards. But in each of those games Rudolph faced a defense that yields, on average, fewer than 9.2 FPG to opposing TEs. Philadelphia, Arizona, the New York Jets and New Orleans all rank in the top-10 for fewest FPG allowed to TEs. But his chances for a better performance increase greatly against the Lions, who’ve let four TEs score and allow an average of 13.4 FPG to the position. Factor in Rudolph’s 38.1-percent end zone target share, which ranks No. 2, and the odds are in his favor to find paydirt. The last time these teams met, Week 12 of 2017, Rudolph (4-63-2) finished as the TE2.
D/ST
Kansas City at Cleveland. Baker Mayfield has throw six INTs and lost two fumbles over the past five games. During that span he’s been sacked 14 times. In that same time frame, the once laughable Chiefs defense/special teams ranks No. 3 in fantasy points. The Browns fired coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley, leaving defensive coordinator Greg Williams as interim coach. New offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens, previously the team’s running backs coach, has only called plays in a preseason game. He has zero previous experience as a coordinator. Ride with the Chiefs this week, but keep Mayfield on your bench.
Bench
Running Back
Tevin Coleman, Atlanta at Washington. The Redskins held Saquon Barkley in check in Week 8, limiting him to 38 rushing yards on 13 carries (2.9 YPC). Washington gives up an average of 80 rushing yards per game. Barkley did his damage through the air, though it took him nine catches to produce 73 yards. No running back has scored a receiving TD against Washington, which holds opposing RBs to a 3.6 YPC average and four total rushing TDs. Coleman hasn’t seen more than four targets in a game this season, and sports a 3.8 YPC average. Don’t bank on Coleman scoring: he trails backfield mate Ito Smith 10-16 in red zone touches.
LeSean McCoy, Buffalo vs. Chicago. Shady’s frustration with Buffalo’s inefficient offense was apparent in Monday night’s loss to the Patriots. He rushed 12 times for 13 yards behind an offensive line that ranks No. 26 in run blocking. McCoy managed to salvage his day by setting season highs in targets, receptions and receiving yards (6-of-8 for 82 yards). But instead of Derek Anderson throwing him the ball he gets a downgrade to Nathan Peterman, who’s thrown three TDs to nine INTs in his career. Against a Bears team that allows the third fewest FPG (16.7) to opposing RBs, McCoy struggles to a disappointing day.
Wide Receiver
Allen Robinson, Chicago at Buffalo. A pair of TDs help mask an otherwise unproductive and inefficient season for Robinson, whose 25 receptions leave much to be desired. He has one game with more than five receptions (Week 2 vs. Seattle) and hasn’t sniffed 100 receiving yards in a game. The Bills pass defense has yielded seven TDs to receivers, and holds them to an average of 33 FPG. For comparison, receivers have scored 13 TDs and average 52.3 FPG against the Saints. Robinson is also questionable with a groin injury which won’t help his chances for a productive day.
DeVante Parker, Miami vs. New York Jets. A popular pickup on the waiver wire this week, Parker draws a tough cornerback matchup against Morris Claiborne. While the Jets secondary is generally unimpressive – they allow an average of 43.2 FPG to opposing WRs – Claiborne stands out. He’s held opposing WRs to under 60 yards in each game this season, and hasn’t allowed more than five receptions in a game. His eight pass breakups rank No. 3, and he’s allowed one TD.
Quarterback
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh at Baltimore. Big Ben faced the Ravens at home in Week 4 and posted 15.98 fantasy points, his second-worst mark of the season. That’s on par with what the Ravens defense does on a regular basis, as they hold opposing QBs to an average of 15.2 FPG. Roethlisberger broke the index finger in his non-throwing hand, but the injury figures to affect his handling of the ball. While he’s performed better this season on the road in general – his splits are historically bad – Big Ben is hard to trust this week in Baltimore.
Tight End
Trey Burton, Chicago at Buffalo. Chances are good you can’t afford to sit Burton with the current landscape of the position in fantasy football, but definitely manage your expectations. He’s got an intimidating matchup against the Bills, who hold opposing tight ends to an average of 10.4 FPG. Burton’s lack of a consistent target share is also troubling. Here’s his past three games in targets: Week 6 vs. Miami (four), Week 7 vs. New England (11), Week 8 vs. New York Jets (four). He’s never topped five PPR points in a game in which he hasn’t scored a TD. His biggest games have come against defenses that have trouble with tight ends, and that’s not Buffalo.
D/ST
Denver vs. Houston. The Broncos face an uphill battle against the Texans, whose offense has recently come alive with a healthy Deshaun Watson and reinvigorated Lamar Miller. Watson torched Miami for five passing TDs, and the addition of Demaryius Thomas diminishes the loss of Will Fuller. Miller has back-to-back 100-yard rushing games and has scored in each. The mobile Watson will evade Denver’s pass rush and keep his streak of games without a turnover, currently at two, alive.
